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CAD

US Inflation Moderates, Canadian Economy Grows More Than Expected

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure missed expectations in February, weakening the case for another hike at the central bank’s May meeting. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rising 0.3 percent in February from the prior month, up 4.6 percent year-over-year – coming in slightly below consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 5 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, decelerating from January’s Social Security-boosted 0.6-percent gain. Incomes were 6.2 percent higher relative to the same month...

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Out Like a Lamb

The month of March is set to end on a quieter note as banking concerns ease, the dollar stabilizes, and volatility measures subside. Treasury yields are steady ahead of new consumer spending data and an update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, equity futures are strengthening, and risk-sensitive currencies are edging higher – suggesting that investors could be positioning for a generalized bear market bounce in early April. Mexico’s peso remains relatively unmoved after the Banxico delivered a widely-expected rate hike and shifted its forward guidance in a firmly data-dependent direction. After telegraphing the intention to do so at last month’s...

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Risk-Taking Rebounds as Rates Volatility Falls

As month-end flows begin to dominate price action in the financial markets, equity futures are preparing for a modest rally at the open, with bank shares and technology indices poised for the biggest gains. Treasury yields are little changed, the dollar is 0.3 percent higher, and other majors are turning in a mixed performance. Implied volatility levels remain relatively elevated as participants hedge themselves against another scare, but term structures are looking interesting: pricing suggests traders expect next week’s US data releases to trigger market movement, but ranges are then expected to tighten in the period preceding decisions from the Bank of...

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Recovery Continues

With tensions continuing to ease across the global banking sector, high-risk currencies are edging higher and the dollar is retreating from its recent highs. Trading volumes in bond markets are beginning to subside – but with investors reducing bets on a turmoil-induced pivot in central bank policy, rates are moving upward. The US two-year is yielding more than 4 percent once again, and equivalent benchmarks in the euro area, United Kingdom, and Canada are climbing off levels reached last week. The euro continues to march higher, with rising bond yields – supported by still-elevated inflation expectations – helping to push the...

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Chartbook: March 27

Charts from this week’s internal trading call: Markets are still behaving irrationally. [embedpress embedpress_embeded_link=” prefix_nftcreator=’false’ prefix_nftprice=’false’ prefix_nftlastsale=’false’ label_nftbutton=’false’ loadmorelabel=’false’ label_nftrank=’false’ label_nftdetails=’false’ embedpress_pro_embeded_source=’default’ embedpress_pro_embeded_nft_type=’false’ spotify_theme=’false’ embedpress_pro_video_start_time=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_end_time=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_auto_play=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_display_controls=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_enable_fullscreen_button=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_display_video_annotations=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_progress_bar_color=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_force_closed_captions=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_modest_branding=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_display_related_videos=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_size=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_custom_dimension=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_xpos=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_xpos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_xpos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_ypos=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_ypos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_ypos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_opacity=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_opacity_hover=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_cta=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_auto_play=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_color=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_display_title=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_display_author=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_avatar=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_loop=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_autopause=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_dnt=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_size=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_custom_dimension=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_xpos=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_xpos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_xpos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_ypos=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_ypos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_ypos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_opacity=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_opacity_hover=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_cta=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_auto_play=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_color=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_captions_enabled_by_default=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_fullscreen_button=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_small_play_button=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_resumable=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_focus=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_captions=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_playbar=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_volume_control=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_volume=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_rewind=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_rewind_time=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_size=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_custom_dimension=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_xpos=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_xpos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_xpos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_ypos=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_ypos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_ypos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_opacity=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_opacity_hover=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_cta=’false’ embedpress_pro_soundcloud_visual=’false’ embedpress_pro_soundcloud_color=’false’ embedpress_pro_soundcloud_autoplay=’false’ embedpress_pro_soundcloud_share_button=’false’ embedpress_pro_soundcloud_comments=’false’ embedpress_pro_soundcloud_artwork=’false’ embedpress_pro_soundcloud_play_count=’false’ embedpress_pro_soundcloud_user_name=’false’ embedpress_pro_soundcloud_buy_button=’false’...

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