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CAD

Dollar Licks Its Wounds As Inflation Accelerates Slightly in Canada

The dollar is advancing incrementally against its major rivals this morning after suffering extensive losses in the last two weeks on a softening in US economic data and a reversal in bets on Donald Trump’s trade plans. A disappointing payrolls report, several noisy but ultimately calming inflation prints, evidence of a slowing in consumer spending, and a less-aggressive-than-feared reciprocal tariff announcement on Thursday helped bring yields down in the last week and a half, and—despite a small advance overnight—the greenback is now down roughly three quarters of a percentage point in trade-weighted terms. Canadian headline and core inflation measures accelerated...

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Will the RBA ease the monetary squeeze?

• European moves. Prospect of more EU defence spending boosted regional equities & bond yields. GBP & JPY firmer. AUD & NZD drift a bit higher.• RBA today. Will the RBA ease some of the monetary squeeze? Markets think so. A 25bp interest rate cut is assigned a ~90% chance.• AUD trends. AUD at levels last traded in mid-Dec. Outcomes compared to expectations drive markets. Is the RBA easing cycle already baked in? Global Trends Given the US President’s Day holiday there wasn’t a lot of volatility overnight. The economic newsflow was light, though European markets did react to US...

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USD on the backfoot

• US macro. Weak US retail sales weighed on bond yields & the USD on Friday. AUD & NZD extend respective rebounds. US holiday today.• Central banks. Markets expecting another 50bp RBNZ rate cut with a 25bp move by the RBA anticipated. Have easing cycles already been priced in?• Event Radar. In addition to the RBA (Tues) & RBNZ (Weds), AU jobs report also due (Thurs). Global PMIs scheduled (Fri). US Fed members speaking. Global Trends US economic data was the market driver on Friday night with no fresh geopolitical or tariff-related headlines coming through which moved the dial. US...

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Dollar Retreats as ‘Tariff Exhaustion’ Kicks In, and Retail Sales Slump

The dollar is trading near a two-month low this morning after Donald Trump delivered a long-threatened “reciprocal” tariff plan that was distinctly short on tradeable detail. In an extensively-teased announcement from the Oval Office, the president signed a memo directing federal agencies to investigate raising import taxes on shipments from countries with “unfair” economic barriers in place against US exports—things like tariffs, regulations, subsidies, manipulated exchange rates, and domestic value-added taxes—but stopped short of imposing any deadlines or naming the product categories and countries that could be targeted. “On trade, I have decided, for purposes of fairness, that I will...

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Upbeat end to the week

• Positive vibes. Equities rise, yields fall. USD loses ground. Favourable US PPI & geopolitical/tariff news support sentiment. AUD & NZD lift.• Tariff news. ‘Reciprocal’ US tariffs in the pipeline. Likely to be formally announced by 1 April. Markets breathe a short-term sigh of relief.• Macro events. US retail sales due tonight. Next week the RBA & RBNZ meet. Rate cuts expected by both, though the RBNZ should be more aggressive. Global Trends There were a few more pockets of headline-driven volatility overnight. But on balance, risk sentiment has been positive with favourable data and geopolitical developments coming through. Equities...

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