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CAD

25 Jan 2024

Markets Mark Time Into US Growth Print

Markets are treading water ahead of US fourth-quarter growth data. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.16 percent , the dollar is almost unchanged, and key commodity prices – including the major oil benchmarks – are up slightly. Equity markets – key to the dollar’s outperformance over the last year – are setting up for a weaker open after Tesla Inc. missed earnings guidance and said it would grow more slowly this year. Surprising no one monitoring trade flows, Elon Musk warned that Chinese competitors would “demolish” Western automakers without the imposition of protectionist policies on the industry. The Canadian...

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24 Jan 2024

China pulls another policy lever

• Positive tone. Equities & commodities higher. US bond yields rose. EUR, GBP & NZD firmer while the AUD has range traded over the past 24hrs.• China & tax cuts. Policymakers in China cut the RRR. Locally, changes to stage 3 tax cuts could see more relief flow to low/middle income earners.• ECB & US GDP. No change expected from the ECB. But will it push back on rate cut pricing? US GDP should confirm another solid quarter of growth. A generally positive mood across markets overnight. Equities rose with the S&P500 (+0.2%) touching a new record high. The EuroStoxx50...

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24 Jan 2024

Weekly Chartbook, January 24

The Bank of Canada set the stage for rate cuts.  Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, % US growth and rate expectations keep rising. Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, % But other economies might be bottoming.  Composite purchasing manager indices, >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June. M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA Inflation could impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar. Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. USDCAD exchange rate

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24 Jan 2024

Loonie Falls As Bank of Canada Turns Dovish

As had been widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, but language in the accompanying statement, Monetary Policy Report, and prepared comments tilted in a more clearly-dovish direction, helping lift market expectations for rate cuts in the first half of the year. Policymakers attempted to navigate a difficult communications challenge: while acknowledging signs of weakness in the economy and expressing approval of declining inflation pressures, they also sought to avoid repeating last year’s mistake – triggering a sharp rise in home prices and aggregate demand by encouraging an unwarranted easing in...

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24 Jan 2024

Chinese Relief Efforts Boost Sentiment 

An escalation in Chinese stimulus efforts is helping boost global asset prices this morning, driving equity indices, commodity prices, and risk-sensitive currencies higher ahead of the North American open. The greenback is weaker, Treasury yields are slipping, and oil prices are holding steady in still-oversupplied markets. In an unexpected step, the People’s Bank of China announced it would lower the amount of reserves banks need to hold against their deposits for the third time in a year, potentially unlocking roughly 1 trillion yuan in new lending capacity. The move, which comes after a raft of securities purchases by China’s “national...

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