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AUD

12 Jun 2024

US inflation vs the Fed

• Data vs the Fed. Softer US inflation overpowered a ‘higher for longer’ Fed message. US yields fell, equities rose, & the USD weakened.• Stale forecasts? Fed assuming only 1 cut this year. Fed has moved to match the market. But Chair Powell noted ‘most’ didn’t tweak forecasts after the CPI.• AUD outperformance. Backdrop helped the AUD outperform. AU jobs report today. Could the ‘labour force lottery’ spring another surprise? US events generated a burst of market friendly volatility overnight with softer than predicted CPI inflation overpowering a more cautious ‘higher for longer’ message from the Federal Reserve. While there...

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11 Jun 2024

US CPI & Fed in focus

• Data & politics. European political concerns have weighed on the EUR. This & positive US jobs data at the end of last week have supported the USD.• US events. US CPI & Fed meeting in focus tonight. US core inflation forecast to slow & while the Fed should project few cuts this may already be priced in.• AUD cross-currents. European issues have boosted AUD/EUR. Positive US CPI signs & the Fed failing to exceed ‘hawkish’ expectations may help AUD. Economic and political developments in the US and Europe have shaken up markets over the past few sessions. The better-than-expected...

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06 Jun 2024

More policy recalibration

• Consolidation. US equities & yields little changed. USD slightly softer with EUR inching up after the ECB cut rates but was vague about future moves.• US jobs. Monthly US employment report in focus tonight. Signs conditions are cooling could revive US Fed rate cut bets. This may drag on the USD.• Other data. China trade figures out today. New RBA Deputy Gov. Hauser speaks. Next week US Fed meets, with US CPI & AU jobs also due. Consolidation was the name of the game across most major markets overnight. While European equities edged up (EuroStoxx600 +0.7%) the US S&P500...

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05 Jun 2024

BoC cuts rates. ECB set to follow.

• Positive tone. Equities higher, while bond yields fell. BoC delivered its first rate cut this cycle. There were more signs the US labour market is cooling.• FX moves. Limited net moves in currencies. USD index a touch firmer, with a softer JPY the main driver. EUR & AUD treading water.• Data flow. ECB tonight. A rate cut is fully priced. Q1 AU GDP confirmed growth momentum is weak. But this is what is needed to tame inflation. It was a generally positive tone across markets overnight. European and US equities rose, with strong gains in technology stocks coming through....

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03 Jun 2024

More signs of a US slowdown

• US ISM. A weaker US manufacturing ISM rattled nerves. The drop in US bond yields has weighed on the USD & supported the AUD.• Labour market. US JOLTS due tonight. Non-farm payrolls out on Friday. Signs the US jobs market is cooling may exerted more pressure on the USD.• AU data. Q1 GDP due tomorrow. More inputs released today. Modest growth anticipated. But offshore forces/USD trends have more of an AUD impact. A surprisingly weak US ISM manufacturing survey, a leading indicator for cyclical momentum in the economy, rattled a few market nerves overnight. In contrast to expectations predicting...

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