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Market Wire, North America

US Payrolls Reflect Temporary Dislocations

The US employment engine slowed sharply in October, but the impact on markets looks relatively modest thus far, given that investors had been braced for a weaker payrolls report, with hurricane-related effects widely expected to combine with the ongoing Boeing strike to bring job-creation rates down. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 12,000 jobs were added in the month – representing an undershoot relative to the 100,000-consensus forecast – but the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, and the labour force participation rate inched only slightly lower, suggesting that labour market internals remained relatively...

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Bank of Canada Delivers Outsized Cut

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by an outsized 50 basis points this morning, broadly matching market expectations and triggering a small drop in the loonie. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers acknowledged a broad-based slowdown in Canada, noting that consumption is declining on a per-capita basis, the labour market is “soft”, and the “economy continues to be in excess supply”. Near-term growth expectations were revised down. Updated projections in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report showed the Bank’s economists expect growth to end 2024 at 1.8 percent – down from the previous 2-percent estimate....

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Canadian Inflation Tumbles, Raising Odds on Larger Rate Cuts

Canadian headline inflation decelerated by more than expected last month, lowering the hurdle to an outsized rate cut at next week’s Bank of Canada meeting. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index decelerating to 1.6 percent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from the 2-percent increase recorded in August and well below consensus expectations that had been set closer to 1.8 percent. On a month-over-month basis, prices fell -0.4 percent. Excluding shelter costs, prices rose just 0.4 percent relative to a year prior. Underlying pressures remained sticky: core inflation, computed as the average of...

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Inflation Prints Higher, Further Reducing Easing Bets

Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, reducing the Federal Reserve’s scope for manoeuvre as it eases policy settings, and further depressing odds on a second outsized rate cut at next month’s decision. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.3 percent in September from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly above consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which had...

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Payrolls Smash Forecasts, Propelling Dollar Higher

The US job creation engine snapped back into high gear in September, crushing odds on a second outsized rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November meeting. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 254,000 jobs were added in the month, topping the 150,000 consensus forecast, and revisions to the July and August prints saw them rise by a combined 72,000 positions. Wage gains remained remarkably strong, pointing to an improvement in worker bargaining power. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month, down slightly from 0.5 percent in the prior month, and were up 4 percent year-over-year....

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