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Market Wire, North America

Bank of Canada Cuts Aggressively, But Turns More Cautious, Boosting Loonie

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark overnight rate by an outsized 50 basis points this morning – a step that broadly matched market expectations – but also telegraphed a more gradual approach in months to come, generating a modest advance in the loonie. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers said “With inflation around 2 percent, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected,” making it reasonable to “reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3...

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US Inflation Stabilises, Markets Express Relief

Consumer price growth held steady in the United States last month, avoiding a widely-feared surge, and giving the Federal Reserve room to ease policy settings in December. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.3 percent in October from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, while matching September’s pace. This was in line with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, suggesting that hurricanes Helene and Milton...

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Fed Delivers Quarter-Point Cut, Arguably Adopts Less-Dovish Tone

As had been widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point this afternoon, and cautious language in the statement points to a more gradual pace of easing ahead. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.5 to 4.75 percent, with Governor Bowman moving back into line with the consensus after dissenting in favour of a similar-sized move in September. In the statement setting out the decision, officials noted “economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace,” before saying “Since earlier...

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US Payrolls Reflect Temporary Dislocations

The US employment engine slowed sharply in October, but the impact on markets looks relatively modest thus far, given that investors had been braced for a weaker payrolls report, with hurricane-related effects widely expected to combine with the ongoing Boeing strike to bring job-creation rates down. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 12,000 jobs were added in the month – representing an undershoot relative to the 100,000-consensus forecast – but the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, and the labour force participation rate inched only slightly lower, suggesting that labour market internals remained relatively...

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Bank of Canada Delivers Outsized Cut

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by an outsized 50 basis points this morning, broadly matching market expectations and triggering a small drop in the loonie. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers acknowledged a broad-based slowdown in Canada, noting that consumption is declining on a per-capita basis, the labour market is “soft”, and the “economy continues to be in excess supply”. Near-term growth expectations were revised down. Updated projections in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report showed the Bank’s economists expect growth to end 2024 at 1.8 percent – down from the previous 2-percent estimate....

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