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Market Wire, North America

18 Mar 2026

Fed holds rates, downplays oil price-driven shift in risk calculus

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this afternoon and did little to acknowledge an Iran war-driven shift in the balance of risks facing the US economy in the accompanying statement, suggesting that officials could resist adopting a more hawkish posture in the near term. In the widely-expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted by an 11-to-1 margin to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.50 and 3.75 percent. Trump appointee Stephen Miran dissented in favour of cutting rates, while Christopher Waller—who had previously lobbied for more easing while correctly anticipating a downturn in labour...

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18 Mar 2026

Bank of Canada holds, signals willingness to look through energy price shock

As markets had overwhelmingly anticipated, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, and expressed concern over persistent weakness in the Canadian economy, suggesting that policymakers are more concerned about downside risks to growth than upside risks to inflation as the world economy faces yet another supply shock. Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy rate at 2.25 percent for a third consecutive meeting after delivering nine cuts between June 2024 and September 2025. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers warned “With recent data pointing to weaker economic activity and uncertainty...

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09 Mar 2026

Markets poised to unwind war premium as Trump signals Iran endgame

Crude oil benchmarks are under intense selling pressure and currency markets are reversing direction after US president Donald Trump told CBS News “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”. Trump said Iran had made a “big mistake” in choosing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba to be the country’s next supreme leader, warning “I don’t know if it’s going to last. I think they made a mistake,” but stopped short of repeating the sort of regime change demands made earlier in the US-Israeli campaign against Iran. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles...

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01 Mar 2026

Currency markets brace for modest moves as Iran strikes fail to shift strategic calculus

Currency markets are set for a jolt when trading resumes this afternoon, though the reaction may prove less dramatic than the weekend’s headlines might suggest. US and Israeli strikes on Iran have sent missiles arcing across the Middle East and claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting celebrations in Iranian cities. Yet for all the pyrotechnics, the military campaign appears calibrated to avoid the kind of escalation that would force a wholesale repricing of risk assets. American and Israeli forces are conducting what military planners often describe as “lawn mowing” operations—hits on missile infrastructure and targeted assassinations of...

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28 Feb 2026

US and Israel launch regime change attempt in Iran, potentially roiling markets

The US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran earlier this morning, with the apparent aim of overthrowing the regime that has ruled since 1979. In an early-morning address, US president Donald Trump said “The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests,” telling Iranians: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.” Verifiable news has been limited, but the initial barrage appears to have targeted Iranian leadership, not wider military or economic infrastructure. Explosions have...

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