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Market Wire, North America

Powell Turns Dovish in Jackson Hole, Triggering Dollar Plunge

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that the central bank will soon resume cutting interest rates in a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this morning. “The balance of risks appears to be shifting,” Powell said at the central bank’s annual gathering in the Grand Teton National Park this morning, “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation”. “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance”. In his last appearance...

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Fed Keeps Rates On Hold Even As Consensus Breaks Down

The Federal Reserve downgraded its assessment of the economy even as it held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, and stopped short of executing the sort of communications pivot that might have prepared markets for an imminent rate cut. The Federal Open Market Committee voted in a split 9-2 decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25 to 4.50 percent—a level reached in December after a series of cuts in the second half of 2024—with Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller dissenting from the majority. This is highly unusual—the last time two...

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Bank of Canada Holds Rates, Telegraphs Readiness to Cut

After a series of rate cuts, the Bank of Canada decided to leave interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive time this morning, but signalled a willingness to cut rates again if inflation stabilises and the economy continues its underperformance. As was widely expected, the overnight rate was left at 2.75 percent after seven consecutive cuts were delivered between June 2024 and March of this year, bringing the benchmark down from its peak at 5 percent. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers noted that the Trump administration’s policy changes are “disrupting trade,” but the “economy is showing...

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Trump Raises Tariffs on Mexico and the European Union to 30 Percent

Currency markets are headed for another bruising open when trading begins in Asia tomorrow afternoon after President Donald Trump delivered another set of letters threatening to impose higher tariffs on Mexico and the European Union. In two missives posted to his social media platform, the president said taxes on imports from two of America’s most important trading partners would rise to 30 percent on August 1, separate from other sectoral tariffs on products like steel, aluminum, and automobiles. In his communication to President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump acknowledged “Mexico has been helping me secure the border,” but said “what Mexico has...

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Canadian Dollar Tumbles As Trump Ups Tariff Ante With 35-Percent Threat

Update: Bloomberg is reporting that a US official has clarified that the new tariff threshold is NOT intended to apply to USMCA-compliant goods, suggesting that the impact on the Canadian economy could be far smaller than might otherwise have been the case. Our admittedly-unscientific estimates suggest that roughly 80 percent of Canadian exports to the US could ultimately meet the qualification criteria needed to escape the new levies. The loonie’s losses are beginning to moderate, although the exchange rate remains more than 40 basis points below this afternoon’s closing level. The Canadian dollar is tumbling once again after President Donald...

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