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Market Brief, North America

03 Mar 2025

Dollar Retreats as Economic Data Slows and Geopolitical Shifts Bolster the Euro

The dollar is down sharply against most of its major rivals this morning as bets on the ‘US exceptionalism’ trade are unwound and investors throw money at the euro area ahead of an expected rise in government spending on defence. Defying consensus forecasts, on a year-to-date basis, the most widely-quoted measure of the greenback’s value—the DXY “Dixie” dollar index—is now down 2.3 percent, while the euro is up 1 percent, and the Japanese yen is sitting on top of the major-currency leaderboard with a near-4-percent gain. Stagflation worries are suddenly stalking the US economy and financial markets. Friday’s personal spending...

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28 Feb 2025

Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Markets and US Consumption

The dollar remains firmly on the offensive after Donald Trump reiterated his threat to impose near-universal 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as next week. Ten-year Treasury yields are trading close to the 4.25 percent threshold after having lost almost 35 basis points since the middle of the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indices have given back all of this year’s gains, and a sense of caution is gripping currency markets as a range of indicators point to an uncertainty-driven slowdown in the world’s largest economy—and in the countries that it trades with. The US...

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27 Feb 2025

Tariff Confusion Leaves Currency Markets Rudderless

The US dollar is inching higher against most of its rivals—with the exception of the safe-haven Swiss franc—as investors monitor signs of an impending economic slowdown amid deepening uncertainty over the Trump administration’s tariff plans. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding just below the 4.3-percent threshold after fully unwinding their post-election gains, North American equity futures are setting up for an almost-unchanged open, and foreign exchange rates are displaying signs of broad-based risk aversion. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are almost unchanged after President Trump appeared to say that levies on the two countries would take effect on April...

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26 Feb 2025

Markets Stabilise Even As Economic Pessimism Grows

Markets are finding a firmer footing this morning after intensifying worries about the US economy’s trajectory weakened the dollar and drove yields and equity bourses lower in yesterday’s session. Today’s data calendar looks relatively quiet, but this afternoon’s Nvidia’s earnings release could move markets, and political developments will continue to occupy centre stage. A widely-watched measure of consumer confidence dropped at the fastest monthly rate since August 2021 earlier this month, suggesting that uncertainty about the Trump administration’s policies is contributing to a rising sense of alarm among Americans. Data released yesterday morning showed the Conference Board’s confidence index sliding...

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25 Feb 2025

New Tariff Threats Add to Unease

The US dollar is up only slightly against its peers this morning after Donald Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico are “going forward on time, on schedule”. Speaking with reporters after yesterday afternoon’s meeting with French president Emmanuel Macron, Trump claimed the United States had been “led, in some cases, by fools,” saying “I look at some of these [trade] agreements, I’d read them at night and I’d say, ’Who would ever sign a thing like this?’ So the tariffs will go forward, yes, and we’re going to make up a lot of territory… Our country will be extremely...

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