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Market Brief, North America

Another day, another (more expensive) dollar

The greenback keeps moving from strength to strength, with the “US outperformance” trade gaining renewed momentum as risk appetite falls and signs of weakness grow more evident in other parts of the global economy. Equity futures are softening this morning as reports of a Chinese government ban on Apple devices drive the technology company’s shares lower. Yields are slightly lower at both the two- and ten-year horizons, and most major currencies are down against the dollar.  Yesterday, when the Institute for Supply Management said its index of service-sector activity had risen to a six-month high, with improvements seen in virtually...

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Dollar steamrolls global markets

The almighty greenback is holding near its highest levels since March this morning as rising oil prices and slower disinflation fears force Treasury yields upward. The major North American equity bourses are under pressure and risk-sensitive currencies are licking their wounds.  Half-hearted defence efforts from policymakers are doing little to reverse the tide. The euro is up just 0.2 percent after European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot warned markets could be “underestimating” the likelihood of a rate hike at next week’s meeting, and his colleague Peter Kazimir said he would prefer to “deliver another 25 basis points” and...

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Risk appetite fades on China slowdown fears

The US dollar is stronger against all its major counterparts this morning, building on August’s 1.7-percent gain as weak Chinese data weighs on global risk appetite. US equity futures are setting up for a modestly-weaker open and Treasury yields are up across the curve, helping keep the trade-weighted greenback near six-month highs. Global commodity prices are under pressure, the euro is softer, and both the onshore and offshore Chinese yuan pools are trading below 7.30 to the dollar after the private-sector Caixin services purchasing manager index dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July (the 50 level marks the...

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Markets leap higher on weakening payrolls growth

Goldilocks is enjoying her just-right porridge this morning after a US payrolls report pointed to a gradual easing in labour market conditions, supporting expectations for an imminent end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. North America The US economy added 187,000 new non-farm jobs last month, marking the third consecutive month of gains below 200,000, and helping bolster bets on an imminent end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate jumped off historic lows to 3.8 percent in August, up from 3.5 percent in the previous month’s print (but we note that...

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US exceptionalism trade lifts dollar, supports rate expectations across the curve

Risk appetite remains relatively strong after a series of data releases – including today’s spending and inflation numbers – helped bolster bets on a “soft landing” in the US economy that could convince the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at prevailing levels for an extended period. The major North American equity indices are inching higher, Treasury yields are climbing off three-week lows, and commodity prices are enjoying a brief period of respite, even as the dollar – symbol of American economic outperformance – pushes higher against its major counterparts. North America American consumers spent more than expected last month, defying...

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