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Market Brief, North America

Risk-Taking Rebounds as Rates Volatility Falls

As month-end flows begin to dominate price action in the financial markets, equity futures are preparing for a modest rally at the open, with bank shares and technology indices poised for the biggest gains. Treasury yields are little changed, the dollar is 0.3 percent higher, and other majors are turning in a mixed performance. Implied volatility levels remain relatively elevated as participants hedge themselves against another scare, but term structures are looking interesting: pricing suggests traders expect next week’s US data releases to trigger market movement, but ranges are then expected to tighten in the period preceding decisions from the Bank of...

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Recovery Continues

With tensions continuing to ease across the global banking sector, high-risk currencies are edging higher and the dollar is retreating from its recent highs. Trading volumes in bond markets are beginning to subside – but with investors reducing bets on a turmoil-induced pivot in central bank policy, rates are moving upward. The US two-year is yielding more than 4 percent once again, and equivalent benchmarks in the euro area, United Kingdom, and Canada are climbing off levels reached last week. The euro continues to march higher, with rising bond yields – supported by still-elevated inflation expectations – helping to push the...

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Calmer Heads Prevail?

A sense of cautious optimism is returning to financial markets this morning as investors bet contagion risks at regional banks in Europe and the United States have been largely contained. All of the major currency pairs are trading within relatively tight ranges, Treasury yields are inching back from last week’s selloff, and equity futures are setting up for a stronger open. Oil prices are rising, gold is falling, and the Canadian dollar – again functioning more like a risk proxy than a national currency unit – is climbing against the greenback. Signs of stability are returning. European bank shares climbed through the...

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TGIF?

As 2023 unfolds, “Thank God It’s Friday” is rapidly becoming “Oh No, It’s Friday”. Risk appetites are shrinking across the financial markets this morning as investors brace for a weekend that could follow its predecessors in bringing more scary news. The dollar is pushing higher against all of its major non-Japanese counterparts, two-year Treasury yields appear headed back toward the lows reached earlier in the week, and futures suggest equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. North American crude futures are exchanging hands near $67 a barrel, below levels at which the Biden administration had committed to refilling...

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Markets Move Higher as Anxiety Subsides

A relief rally continues to unfold in global financial markets this morning, with equity indices and bond yields marching higher as tensions in the US and European banking sectors show signs of easing. The dollar is turning in a mixed performance as safe haven currencies retreat. In prepared comments released ahead of a speech this morning, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the protections extended to uninsured depositors at Silicon Valley Bank could see use elsewhere. “Our intervention was necessary to protect the broader US banking system,” she said, “And similar actions could be warranted if smaller institutions suffer deposit runs that pose the...

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