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Market Brief, North America

US Rate Cut Expectations Tumble Ahead of Jackson Hole

The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a two-week high after yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated activity data triggered a dramatic reappraisal of the Federal Reserve’s expected easing trajectory, lowering expectations for a clear rate-cutting message from chair Jerome Powell at this morning’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady around the 4.33-percent mark, equity futures are setting a course toward an advance at the open, and most major currencies are holding just below technically-important levels as traders await further clarity before pushing them lower. US private sector activity expanded at the fastest rate recorded so far this year...

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Outlook Improves As Global Private Sector Activity Rebounds

A hint of cautious optimism is creeping into currency markets this morning after a raft of activity gauges suggested that the global private sector is proving surprisingly resilient in the face of the US trade onslaught. The dollar is trading sideways, yields are up slightly, and North American equity futures are pointing to continued selling pressure, but this appears largely contained in the technology sector, with broader measures looking relatively stable. The euro and British pound are both holding steady against the dollar after preliminary August purchasing manager indices popped higher, outperforming expectations for a modest improvement. In the euro...

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Currency Markets Steady As Traders Await Fed Communications

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Most major currency pairs remain trapped in tight price ranges this morning as volumes fall, but the dollar is firming slightly as traders hedge themselves against an unexpectedly-hawkish message from Jerome Powell at Friday’s meeting in Jackson Hole, and Treasury yields are pushing modestly higher. Although technology stocks are paring their losses after yesterday’s swoon, broader equity indices look set to print slightly lower at the open. The British pound is almost unchanged even after inflation climbed to an 18-month high, topping market forecasts and seemingly complicating the Bank of England’s easing plans. According to an...

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Currency Market Price Action Slows, Canadian Inflation Eases

A sense of calm has descended upon global financial markets as the data cadence slows, geopolitical developments settle to a dull roar, and monetary policy expectations stabilise. Benchmark Treasury yields are almost unchanged relative to yesterday’s open, equity futures are pointing to another day of incremental gains, and measures of implied currency volatility remain low—even across short-term tenors that include Friday’s hotly-anticipated speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Here in Canada, inflation pressures subsided more than expected last month, slightly raising the likelihood of a rate cut in early 2026. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the...

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Traders Turn Cautious in Run-Up to Jackson Hole

Good morning, and welcome back. In the US, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near last week’s levels, equity futures are setting up for a modest advance at the open, and the dollar is trading near a three-week low against most of its major rivals. The euro is trading lower given that there’s been no appreciable unwinding in geopolitical risk after presidents Trump and Putin emerged from a meeting in Alaska without anything resembling a deal to end the war in Ukraine. And measures of risk appetite are creeping lower across the G10 currency space as traders brace for Federal Reserve...

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