Market Brief, North America

A global relief rally is unwinding as markets take a more skeptical view on the likelihood of a shift in Federal Reserve policy. Early in yesterday’s session, a series of data releases helped diminish expectations ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report and push odds on a final 2023 rate hike back below coin-toss levels: Payroll processing firm ADP said the private sector created just 89,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 160,000 or more. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index weakened more than projected. And West Texas Intermediate prices suffered the biggest reversal this year, falling by...

Another round of stronger-than-expected US activity data combined with surging oil prices to send Treasury yields roaring to new cyclical peaks yesterday, triggering yet another spike in the dollar. Durable goods orders surprised with a 0.2-percent gain in August – markets had expected a -0.5 percent contraction – and non-defence capital spending climbed 0.9 percent, suggesting that the business investment cycle remained in relatively robust health. West Texas Intermediate prices briefly jumped above the $95 mark after the Energy Information Administration said crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub fell to less than 22 million barrels, nearing tank bottoms...