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Market Brief, North America

02 Nov 2023

Fed pivot hopes boost markets

Yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision was seen as tilting dovish, with a newfound emphasis on “tighter financial conditions” taken to mean that higher bond yields are negating the need for further rate hikes. Ten-year government bond yields fell below 4.75 percent for the first time since mid-October, extending a move that began earlier in the session when the Treasury Department said it would ramp up issuance more slowly, and accelerated after the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index tumbled more than expected. Equities gained, and the dollar fell against all of its major counterparts. This was to be expected: several officials,...

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31 Oct 2023

Dollar eases amid heavy macro data flow

The US dollar and yields are edging lower after the US Treasury surprised investors by lowering its estimates for government borrowing in the fourth quarter, helping ease fears of a supply-led melt-up in rates. According to yesterday’s release, net issuance is expected to hit a record $776 billion over the final three months of the year, but this is down from the $852 billion projected in late July as higher-than-anticipated tax receipts help offset funding requirements. Tomorrow morning’s issuance plan – which will outline the cadence and scale of auctions – could have a more meaningful effect on the rates...

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30 Oct 2023

Traders exit safe havens ahead of busy week

Markets are unwinding risk haven trades this morning, following a pattern established over the last several weekends, with Gaza-related geopolitical exposures forcing traders to square positions before each Friday close, only to reopen them each Monday. With Israeli forces advancing more cautiously than had been feared, oil prices are down, gold is coming under selling pressure, and equity futures are edging higher. The dollar is broadly softening against its major counterparts – including the Canadian dollar – but ten-year Treasury yields are again pushing past the 4.85-percent mark as investors brace for a tumultuous week in fixed income markets. The...

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27 Oct 2023

Growing conviction in US “soft landing” supports risk appetite

Markets are trading with a mildly supportive tone this morning after yesterday’s third-quarter growth data showed US inflation pressures continuing to fade even as consumer spending remained robust – conditions closely resembling those the Federal Reserve has been working to engineer. After dropping almost ten basis points, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.86 percent, and most major currencies are strengthening against an incrementally weaker dollar. Equity futures are gaining ahead of the North American open on solid earnings guidance from Amazon and Intel, and oil prices are higher after the US launched “precision self-defense” strikes against two Iran-linked facilities...

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26 Oct 2023

Price action slows into US growth data and European rate decision

The dollar is rising ahead of data that is likely to show the American economy expanding at a remarkably-aggressive pace in the third quarter, defying widespread expectations for a slowdown. Consensus estimates suggest this morning’s data will show output growing 4.7 percent in the third quarter, but the “whisper” number is considerably higher, nearing the 5 percent mark, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” model is pointing to a 5.4-percent expansion. Anything in this range would serve to highlight the yawning performance gap between the US and its major counterparts, and would mark the latest in a long line of...

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