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Market Brief, North America

04 Sep 2024

Foreshocks Rumble Financial Markets

Seismic activity is intensifying across financial markets ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A series of temblors hit during yesterday’s session, with Nvidia suffering the largest nominal one-day wipeout in market history, the S&P 500 falling by more than 2 percent, the VIX “fear index” jumping by more than a third, and currency markets seeing at least three wholesale trend reversals in the space of eight hours. Today looks set to deliver a more muted version of the same, with futures pointing to renewed selling, Treasury yields inching lower, and the dollar slipping against its major rivals ahead of the...

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03 Sep 2024

Investors Batten the Hatches Ahead of a Stormy September

The dollar is blowing into September with a full head of steam as traders brace for what could prove to be this year’s most pivotal economic data release: Friday’s August non-farm payrolls report. Two-year Treasury yields are edging higher, stock market futures are softening, and the greenback is climbing against most of its major counterparts, with rallies in the euro and pound showing clear signs of exhaustion. Today’s update from the Institute for Supply Management could move markets. The Institute’s manufacturing purchasing manager index is expected to show the factory sector remaining firmly in contractionary territory, with new orders continuing...

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30 Aug 2024

Dollar Reverses Higher as Economy Refuses to Slow

The dollar looks set to close out August on a slightly stronger footing as signs of economic resilience help bolster the case for a more cautious rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields are ratcheting incrementally higher, stock markets are advancing – led by the biggest technology names – and most major currencies are trading sideways ahead of the North American open. Yesterday’s data releases showed the US economy defying the doom-and-gloom crowd. Real gross domestic product growth was revised upward for the second quarter from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent, accelerating sharply from the first quarter’s 1.4 percent...

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28 Aug 2024

Markets Mark Time as Nvidia Earnings Loom

As the hours tick down to this week’s key event risk – Nvidia’s latest earnings release – currency traders are moving to the sidelines and bidding up the greenback. The dollar is climbing against its major rivals, Treasury yields are declining, and North American equity indices are holding firm. The Mexican peso is the clear outperformer on the currency league tables this morning, bouncing back from yesterday’s losses as fears of a diplomatic crisis abate. The exchange rate dropped in yesterday’s session after a constitutional committee approved Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s plan to remove checks and balances in the country’s...

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27 Aug 2024

Currencies Lose Momentum as Caution Sets In

The euro, pound, and yen are essentially flat against the dollar this morning as month end flows begin to dominate the foreign exchange landscape, with market participants generally inclined to cut leverage ahead of what could be an extremely dangerous September. Data releases continue to paint a mixed picture of fundamental developments in the US economy. Yesterday’s July durable goods report beat expectations on the headline level, but proved disappointing on closer examination. Overall orders climbed 9.9 percent from the prior month, but this was largely due to a jump in aircraft orders, which rose almost $23.4 billion after falling...

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