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Market Brief, North America

Currency Market Price Action Slows, Canadian Inflation Eases

A sense of calm has descended upon global financial markets as the data cadence slows, geopolitical developments settle to a dull roar, and monetary policy expectations stabilise. Benchmark Treasury yields are almost unchanged relative to yesterday’s open, equity futures are pointing to another day of incremental gains, and measures of implied currency volatility remain low—even across short-term tenors that include Friday’s hotly-anticipated speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Here in Canada, inflation pressures subsided more than expected last month, slightly raising the likelihood of a rate cut in early 2026. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the...

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Traders Turn Cautious in Run-Up to Jackson Hole

Good morning, and welcome back. In the US, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near last week’s levels, equity futures are setting up for a modest advance at the open, and the dollar is trading near a three-week low against most of its major rivals. The euro is trading lower given that there’s been no appreciable unwinding in geopolitical risk after presidents Trump and Putin emerged from a meeting in Alaska without anything resembling a deal to end the war in Ukraine. And measures of risk appetite are creeping lower across the G10 currency space as traders brace for Federal Reserve...

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Dollar Tumbles After US Job Creation Collapses

The dollar is plunging after the US labour market hit a wall last month, reinforcing market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 73,000 jobs were added in July – representing an undershoot relative to the 105,000-consensus forecast – and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent. The previous two months were revised lower by a combined 260,000 roles, and private sector job creation flipped into negative territory. Total payroll gains have averaged 35,000 over the...

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US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Growth Slows

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exhibited signs of acceleration last month even as personal spending growth slowed, providing more evidence of a “stagflation-lite” situation in the US economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index—which excludes food and energy costs—rising 0.3 percent in June from the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, core prices rose 2.8 percent, slightly narrowing the gap between the Fed Funds rate and underlying inflation. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.3 percent relative to the prior month, and was up 2.6 percent...

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US Economy Rebounds, But Underlying Indicators Point to Slowdown Ahead

The world’s biggest economy staged a snappish recovery in the second quarter as tariff front-running effects were unwound, but signs of moderating growth were clearly visible, suggesting that momentum is falling off. Real gross domestic product climbed at a 3-percent seasonally-adjusted annual pace from April through June, reversing a -0.5-percent drop in the first three months of the year, and topping consensus estimates. Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg had, on average, expected the economy to grow at a 2.6-percent rate in the second quarter. Net exports added 5 percentage points to the headline print after the sharpest decline on record in...

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