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Market Brief, North America

21 Nov 2023

Dollar fades ahead of Fed minutes

The dollar keeps slipping, slipping, slipping into the future. With this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes expected to confirm an increasingly-dovish consensus among policymakers, the greenback is trading near its August lows, down almost 3 percent on a trade-weighted basis this month. The record of deliberations leading up to the central bank’s early-November decision is likely to show officials seeing growth and inflation risks as more “balanced,” with “many” or “most” participants seeing rates as “near, or already at a sufficiently restrictive” level – language that should bring market-implied odds on a final rate hike down to near zero. The...

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20 Nov 2023

Volatility falls into holiday-shortened week

Goldilocks is eating everybody’s porridge this morning, ignoring her mama’s warnings about ruining her appetite for Thanksgiving. With markets increasingly convinced the US economy is headed into a period of not-too-warm, not-too-cold growth, the dollar is trading at its lowest levels in more than two months, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the open. Implied volatility measures continue to trend lower across asset classes. Currency markets are exhibiting typical “dollar smile” dynamics as a narrowing in expected growth rates and a drop in US rate projections helps spark a recovery in outbound capital...

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17 Nov 2023

Global bond rally continues, weighing on dollar

Easing expectations are growing across global financial markets after another round of softer-than-anticipated data led investors to pull implied rate cuts further forward in 2024. In the US, equity futures are firm, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is on the defensive after reports yesterday morning showed import prices sliding by more than economists forecast while the number of people submitting new claims for jobless benefits began to climb in earnest. Walmart, arguably a better consumer spending bellwether than any sentiment survey or economic forecaster, released a more pessimistic earnings outlook, saying it saw signs of restraint from households...

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15 Nov 2023

Markets extend post-inflation gains

Markets are still roaring upward after US inflation slowed in October, removing a key impetus behind the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening campaign. Equity futures are pointing to further gains after stock markets added more than a trillion dollars in value during yesterday’s session, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.47 percent after tumbling more than 19 basis points in the space of a day, and the dollar is flat after losing almost 1.2 percent against a basket of major currencies. Investors now expect the central bank to cut rates four times in 2024, up from the three previously expected, with...

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14 Nov 2023

Markets flatline ahead of inflation print

Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of this morning’s US consumer price index report, which is expected to show underlying inflation pressures remaining relatively stubborn, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish footing. Equity futures, Treasury yields, and the dollar are moving sideways. The Canadian dollar remains weak amid an absence of domestic catalysts – and against a more cautious risk backdrop. The British pound is almost unchanged against the dollar and euro after data showed wage growth slowing slightly in the third quarter, but remaining well above the Bank of England’s comfort zone. Earnings excluding bonuses were 7.7...

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