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Market Brief, North America

Santa Rally continues, bolstering risk-sensitive currencies

Markets are pushing higher this morning as investors continue to front-run rate cuts, largely ignoring the protestations of Federal Reserve officials themselves. Equity futures are pointing to a stronger open, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is slipping against its major rivals even after the Atlanta’s Fed’s Raphael Bostic said “I’m thinking inflation is going to come down relatively slowly in the next six months, which means there’s not going to be urgency for us to pull off our restrictive stance”. Richmond’s Thomas Barkin told Yahoo Finance policymakers would “respond appropriately” to slowing price growth, but warned “I’ve got...

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Markets turn more cautious on Fed pivot

Markets are turning in a mixed performance this morning as continued optimism surrounding the prospect of a soft landing in the US economy intersects with deepening concern among market veterans over the extent to which positioning has become overstretched. Equity futures are pointing to a modestly-softer open, Treasury yields are slipping, and the dollar is holding steady. Oil prices are holding near two-week highs on the prospect of continued disruption along the Red Sea shipping route. A series of attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militias based in Yemen have forced major shipping companies to reroute cargoes out of the area, with...

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Policymakers could hold the line.

A more bearish backdrop for the yen might unfold if the Bank of Japan holds firm, ignoring elevated inflation and indications that price growth could persist. In this scenario, wide interest rate differentials should continue to depress the yen: especially if risk sentiment remains buoyant, inflation cools, and global growth slows whilst avoiding more sinister outcomes. USDJPY and Japan Trade Weighted Index

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Christmas comes early to financial markets

The dollar plunged yesterday when the policy elves at the world’s most powerful central bank met markets halfway, indicating they expect to cut rates at least three times next year, and four times in 2025. Perhaps more importantly, a jolly Jerome Powell chose not to fight back against an ongoing loosening in financial conditions in the post-meeting press conference, instead pointing to a series of indicators showing the economy achieving a soft landing and suggesting inflation could come down without a rise in unemployment. Some of the fervour is cooling this morning, but not much. With markets now pricing in...

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Markets wait to exhale

Equity futures are setting up for a positive open, Treasury yields are flat across the curve, and the dollar is holding steady ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve decision. Yesterday’s November inflation report showed price growth levelling off well below post-Covid highs, while also remaining above the Fed’s comfort threshold. Underlying inflation accelerated on a month-over-month basis, and the so-called “supercore” measure—core services excluding shelter costs—often mentioned by Jerome Powell, climbed at an annualized 5.2 percent. According to a separate report, real earnings climbed 0.8-percent in the year to November. This doesn’t mean that progress in reducing inflation is reversing—the...

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