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Market Brief, North America

29 Nov 2023

Rate cut bets solidify, pushing global markets higher

Markets are high on rate-cut hopium again this morning, with risk-sensitive assets extending a rally that began yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller set the stage for a policy pivot in early 2024. In a speech and interview, the erstwhile hawk said he was “increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent,”—indicating that the central bank’s rate-setting committee was unlikely to raise rates further—before suggesting that a “hard landing” wouldn’t necessarily be needed to prompt rate cuts. If the decline in inflation continues “for several more months… three months, four...

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28 Nov 2023

Dollar steadies amid softer flows

The dollar is trading just above a three-month low and Treasury yields are creeping higher after yesterday’s drop. Benchmark ten-year rates tumbled more than 10 basis points during the session after the government auctioned $109 billion in short-term notes without triggering any turmoil, adding to a weaker-than-forecast new home sales number in convincing investors that markets and the economy are beginning to normalize after a prolonged sequence of unusual developments. The euro is inching lower in early trade, failing to gain traction after Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel tried pushing back against rate cut expectations. “It would be premature to lower...

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27 Nov 2023

Blue Monday follows Black Friday

Markets are kicking off the week on a more cautious footing after Chinese data disappointed relative to expectations, pointing to a stronger disinflationary impulse from the world’s second-largest economy. Industrial profits increased just 2.7 percent from a year ago in October, according to numbers published by the National Bureau of Statistics, down from September’s 11.9 percent and August’s 17.2 percent as global demand weakens and a domestic recovery runs out of momentum. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels in a week, equity futures are retreating, and the dollar is stabilizing as demand for commodity-linked units and emerging-market...

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24 Nov 2023

Tryptophan-addled markets move sideways

Currency market liquidity is thinner than a Wegovy patient at a Thanksgiving dinner, with choppy price action leaving most major pairs effectively unchanged relative to Wednesday levels. Equity futures are pointing to a subdued holiday session, ten-year Treasury yields are holding at 4.46 percent, and trade-weighted measures of the dollar are staying stable as traders keep positions square into the weekend. The Japanese yen is holding just north of 149 against the dollar after updated inflation numbers came in slightly below expectations, further diminishing odds on an imminent shift away from the central bank’s easy-money policies. Consumer prices excluding fresh...

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22 Nov 2023

Ranges hold in foreign exchange markets as holiday looms

Currency markets are caught in choppy trading conditions as selling pressure on the US dollar abates ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday. Equity futures are steady, Treasury yields are up modestly on the short end, and oil prices are moving sideways as overall liquidity levels fall. The pound is holding near a two-month high on hawkish verbal support from Bank of England policymakers, and the euro is clinging to the 1.09 threshold against the greenback as traders await new catalysts – perhaps tomorrow’s purchasing manager indices – for a move higher. Although momentum is slowing, both the Chinese yuan and Japanese...

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