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Market Brief, North America

17 May 2023

Dollar steamrolls higher on pullback in rate cut bets

The dollar is climbing this morning, ostensibly benefitting from safe haven flows as the political theatre surrounding the debt ceiling negotiations reaches a higher pitch. But with President Biden poised to return early from the G7 summit in Japan and House Speaker McCarthy saying “It is possible to get a deal by the end of the week. It’s not that difficult to get to an agreement,” we suspect other forces are in play. Yesterday’s retail sales report – which showed underlying US consumer demand remaining surprisingly robust for a third consecutive month – may be triggering a broader rethink on the...

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16 May 2023

Trading ranges shrink ahead of action-packed day

Currency markets are seeing subdued price action this morning as participants stay sidelined in a catalyst-poor environment. Both the euro and pound are holding modest gains and the dollar is slightly weaker, with three-month implied volatility levels trading near the lowest levels in a year as monetary policy expectations crystallize and movement in the fixed income space slows to a crawl. Commodity-linked and Antipodean currencies are weaker after traders responded to softer-than-expected Chinese economic activity data by marking down demand forecasts. Last night’s official data showed industrial output in the world’s second largest economy expanding 5.6 percent in April from a year...

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15 May 2023

Dollar retreats on hopes for debt ceiling deal

A more risk-supportive tone is evident across currency markets this morning after Treasury Secretary Yellen said debt ceiling negotiations were making progress. Speaking on the sidelines of the G7 finance minister meeting in Japan, she said “I’m hopeful. I think the negotiations are very active. I’m told they have found some areas of agreement”. Treasury yields and equity futures are up, and most major currencies are advancing against the dollar. The cadence of economic events will slow this week, with a string of central bank speakers competing with second-tier data releases in Europe and Asia for market attention.  Today’s Federal Reserve...

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12 May 2023

Dollar maintains upward momentum into weekend on fading pivot expectations

Two- and ten-year Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is outperforming its major rivals as investors (seemingly) begin to buy into the Federal Reserve’s much-repeated “higher for longer” narrative. S&P and Nasdaq futures are setting up for a modest gain at the open, and commodity prices are down, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark knocking on the $70 threshold once again. In prepared comments released early this morning, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said the central bank might be forced to raise rates further as it struggles to slow growth and bring inflation down. Speaking to a banking conference in Germany,...

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10 May 2023

US inflation slows, providing lift to global asset prices

With the Ukraine energy shock falling out of year-over-year calculations and goods price growth continuing its descent, US consumer inflation slowed slightly more than expected last month. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 4.9 percent in April from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly below the 5.0 percent consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. Energy costs climbed 0.6 percent month-over-month, while the food index remained unchanged. New vehicles fell by -0.2 percent more...

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