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Market Brief, North America

Currency markets grapple with Hassett’s rise as Fed chair candidate, along with UK budget chaos

Currencies are trading on a mixed footing this morning as investors pivot from expecting some Federal Reserve easing to anticipating too much. The dollar slumped, equity markets rallied, and yield curves shifted in yesterday’s session when Bloomberg reported that Kevin Hassett had become the front-runner in the race to replace Jerome Powell at the head of the world’s most powerful central bank. Hassett—now heading the National Economic Council and once a senior Fed official—is regarded as a capable economist, but also as someone more inclined to heed the president’s call for lower rates, even at the risk of stoking longer-term...

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Optimism returns as ‘Fed put’ comes back into play

Financial markets are back in recovery mode and Nasdaq is coming off its best day in six months as growing evidence of a “Fed put” boosts risk appetite. Index futures are pointing to further gains, Treasury yields are down across the curve, and the dollar is losing altitude after Federal Reserve officials expressed deepening concern about labour market softness, prompting a recovery in technology stocks and encouraging investors to set aside—at least for now—worries about stretched valuations. Markets are pricing in a nearly 80-percent chance of a December rate cut—up from less than 30 percent only a week ago—after New...

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Risk appetite turns fragile, markets reverse some gains

The dollar is slipping from its highs, Treasury yields are inching lower, and stock market indices are retrenching as investors trim exposures to the technology sector amid an ongoing retreat from speculative asset classes. With US markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and likely thinly-populated on Black Friday, traders are working to compress position adjustments into the first three days of the week, and price action is accelerating across the foreign exchange markets, extending a broader rise in measures of implied volatility. Expectations for a cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting jumped spectacularly on Friday morning, weakening the...

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Dollar climbs ahead of non-farm payrolls

Currency markets are holding steady after an extremely busy session that saw odds on a December rate cut plunge, helping the dollar post its best daily performance in almost two months. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.14 percent—up almost three basis points from yesterday—equity futures are setting up for gains at the open, and the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar are all trading defensively against the greenback ahead of the delayed September jobs report in half an hour. Minutes taken during the Federal Reserve’s late-October get-together showed policymakers turning more hawkish than markets had anticipated, further lowering the...

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Markets brace for Fed minutes and Nvidia earnings (and not necessarily in that order)

Markets are trimming risk this morning as participants brace for what could become a make-or-break moment in technology speculation and global capital flows. With artificial intelligence juggernaut Nvidia set to publish third-quarter earnings after the closing bell, equity futures are setting up for a positive open after four days of losses, ten-year Treasury yields are again clinging to the 4.12-percent mark, and the dollar is trading higher amid a lack of domestic catalysts in Canada and Europe. The world’s most valuable company has seen its market capitalisation tumble by roughly 7 percent from the peak a few weeks ago, and...

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