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Market Brief, North America

15 May 2025

Markets Retreat on Signs of Consumer Strain

The dollar is retreating as optimism surrounding the weekend’s trade deal continues to diminish and US consumers show signs of exhaustion, leaving investors to contemplate longer-term risks to the American economy. Treasury yields are moving higher, equity indices are indicating a modest softening in today’s session, and most majors – excluding the Canadian and Australian dollars – are up against the greenback. Oil prices are trading lower after President Trump said the US is close to reaching a deal with Tehran that would lift sanctions on its energy exports in exchange for a commitment to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons development....

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14 May 2025

‘Mar A Lago Accord’ Fears Unnerve Dollar Bulls

The dollar is extending its losses this morning, following reports that the United States and South Korea held talks on Seoul’s foreign exchange policies in early May – a development that may signal a shift in Washington’s focus from trade imbalances to currency concerns. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback has fallen more than a full percentage point against its peers in the euro area, United Kingdom, and Japan this week, bringing its year-to-date slump to more than 6 percent. The Korean won leapt higher along with many of its unpegged Asian counterparts after Bloomberg and Reuters cited sources saying...

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13 May 2025

Economic Scepticism and Soft Inflation Weigh on Dollar

Euphoria surrounding the weekend’s US-China tariff climbdown is fading this morning, and the dollar is retreating in the face of a third consecutive monthly undershoot in inflation data. Treasury yields are pushing lower, equity futures are pointing slightly higher, and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are back to outperforming their risk-sensitive brethren. Consumer price growth slowed in the United States last month, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more breathing space as it seeks to address slowdown risks in the economy. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price...

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12 May 2025

US-China Trade Ceasefire Boosts Global Asset Prices

A palpable sense of relief is washing over global markets after the US and China agreed to temporarily cut most tariffs on each other’s goods ahead of further trade negotiations. North American equity futures are setting up for a circa-3-percent rally at the open, Treasury yields are inching higher, and both global oil benchmarks are climbing. In currency markets, the dollar is trading near a one-month high against its major counterparts, and the safe-haven Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and euro are all slumping in relative terms. Under an agreement reached in Geneva over the weekend, US tariffs on Chinese goods...

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08 May 2025

Markets Rally On Hopes For Global Trade Ceasefire

Stock futures are up and the dollar is trading on a stronger footing after President Donald Trump said he would announce a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement with the United Kingdom later this morning, raising hopes that a broader ratcheting down in tensions could avert lasting damage to the American and global economies. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are trading lower, while the euro and other majors are holding firm. Currency market reaction during the White House press conference itself could be fairly subdued. Although reports have suggested that the US is prepared to rescind taxes on autos along...

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