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Market Brief, North America

01 Aug 2025

Dollar Tumbles After US Job Creation Collapses

The dollar is plunging after the US labour market hit a wall last month, reinforcing market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 73,000 jobs were added in July – representing an undershoot relative to the 105,000-consensus forecast – and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent. The previous two months were revised lower by a combined 260,000 roles, and private sector job creation flipped into negative territory. Total payroll gains have averaged 35,000 over the...

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31 Jul 2025

US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Growth Slows

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exhibited signs of acceleration last month even as personal spending growth slowed, providing more evidence of a “stagflation-lite” situation in the US economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index—which excludes food and energy costs—rising 0.3 percent in June from the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, core prices rose 2.8 percent, slightly narrowing the gap between the Fed Funds rate and underlying inflation. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.3 percent relative to the prior month, and was up 2.6 percent...

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30 Jul 2025

US Economy Rebounds, But Underlying Indicators Point to Slowdown Ahead

The world’s biggest economy staged a snappish recovery in the second quarter as tariff front-running effects were unwound, but signs of moderating growth were clearly visible, suggesting that momentum is falling off. Real gross domestic product climbed at a 3-percent seasonally-adjusted annual pace from April through June, reversing a -0.5-percent drop in the first three months of the year, and topping consensus estimates. Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg had, on average, expected the economy to grow at a 2.6-percent rate in the second quarter. Net exports added 5 percentage points to the headline print after the sharpest decline on record in...

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29 Jul 2025

Currency Traders Turn Cautious As Event Risks Multiply

The US dollar is gaining as investors turn more cautious ahead of a raft of important economic data releases and central bank decisions through the remainder of the week. In a pattern familiar to aficionados of the ‘dollar smile’ theory, the greenback is climbing on continued outperformance in the US economy, a firming in rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, and a dimming growth outlook in other major economies. The Japanese yen and British pound are treading water against a resurgent Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar is coming under sustained selling pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision,...

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28 Jul 2025

Dollar Climbs On Trade Deal With EU, Traders Brace For Havoc Ahead

The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union, reducing uncertainties facing businesses and investors on both sides of the pond. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and measures of implied volatility are pushing higher as traders brace for an intense and tumultuous week. The euro is trading lower as investors process what looks like a lopsided deal. According to President Trump, imports from the EU will be tariffed at 15 percent—except steel and aluminium, which will remain at 50...

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