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Market Brief, North America

Jump In Long-Term Yields Pummels Currency Markets

Traders are cutting risk and global interest rates are ratcheting higher as investors sell long-duration instruments this morning, suggesting that a relatively calm summer in financial markets is quickly coming to a rude end. Treasury yields are climbing across the end of the curve, equity futures are retreating ahead of the North American open, and the dollar is surging against all of its major rivals as a series of idiosyncratic events unleash turbulence across fixed-income markets. 30-year UK gilt yields are holding near their highest levels since 1998 on reports suggesting that chancellor Rachel Reeves is struggling to find fiscal...

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Dollar Firms As US Inflation Accelerates, Loonie Tumbles On Disappointing Growth Data

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated as expected in July, making it more difficult to justify an aggressive course of rate cuts beyond September’s widely-anticipated move. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.3 percent from the prior month, matching market forecasts as a number of key goods and services categories showed signs of firming price pressures. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth accelerated to 2.9 percent—the fastest since February—underlining an intensification in inflation pressures across the world’s largest economy. The overall personal consumption expenditures index climbed...

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US Rate Cut Expectations Tumble Ahead of Jackson Hole

The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a two-week high after yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated activity data triggered a dramatic reappraisal of the Federal Reserve’s expected easing trajectory, lowering expectations for a clear rate-cutting message from chair Jerome Powell at this morning’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady around the 4.33-percent mark, equity futures are setting a course toward an advance at the open, and most major currencies are holding just below technically-important levels as traders await further clarity before pushing them lower. US private sector activity expanded at the fastest rate recorded so far this year...

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Outlook Improves As Global Private Sector Activity Rebounds

A hint of cautious optimism is creeping into currency markets this morning after a raft of activity gauges suggested that the global private sector is proving surprisingly resilient in the face of the US trade onslaught. The dollar is trading sideways, yields are up slightly, and North American equity futures are pointing to continued selling pressure, but this appears largely contained in the technology sector, with broader measures looking relatively stable. The euro and British pound are both holding steady against the dollar after preliminary August purchasing manager indices popped higher, outperforming expectations for a modest improvement. In the euro...

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Currency Markets Steady As Traders Await Fed Communications

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Most major currency pairs remain trapped in tight price ranges this morning as volumes fall, but the dollar is firming slightly as traders hedge themselves against an unexpectedly-hawkish message from Jerome Powell at Friday’s meeting in Jackson Hole, and Treasury yields are pushing modestly higher. Although technology stocks are paring their losses after yesterday’s swoon, broader equity indices look set to print slightly lower at the open. The British pound is almost unchanged even after inflation climbed to an 18-month high, topping market forecasts and seemingly complicating the Bank of England’s easing plans. According to an...

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