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Market Brief, North America

17 Jul 2025

Dollar Rebounds After Short-Lived Selloff

The dollar is resuming its upward climb and bond markets are stabilising after suffering a short-lived bout of extreme volatility early in yesterday’s session on speculation surrounding the potential firing of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Most major currencies are down between 1 and 1.5 percent against the greenback this week as the world’s most central currency enjoys a technical recovery against its peers. If yesterday was a test run to see how investors would take the early dismissal of Jerome Powell, it didn’t go particularly well. The dollar slumped, short-term Treasury yields tumbled, long-term yields soared, and equity indices...

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16 Jul 2025

Currencies Retrace After Subdued Wholesale Inflation Print

Bond yields and the dollar are giving back some of yesterday’s gains after US wholesale prices flatlined in June, helping assuage fears of a sharp acceleration in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—the core personal consumption expenditures index—when it is reported at the end of the month. The producer price index for final demand remained unchanged last month after rising 0.3 percent in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said this morning, below the 0.2-percent gain expected by economists. In the 12 months through June, the index advanced 2.3 percent after rising 2.7 percent in May, with the goods category—which...

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15 Jul 2025

Knee-Jerk Market Reaction Fades On Mixed US Inflation Print

US inflation printed below expectations for a fifth consecutive month in June as tariff-led price increases in core goods categories were offset by softness in the services sector and in automobile costs. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 2.9 percent in June from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, accelerating from the prior month’s 0.1-percent pace, but undershooting consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On...

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14 Jul 2025

Markets Keep Playing Chicken With Trump

Financial markets are beginning the week in a remarkably-calm state after the Trump administration spent the weekend escalating its trade war and stepping up its assault on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. The dollar is trading on a slightly firmer footing after posting its best performance since February last week, Treasury yields are up incrementally, and equity futures are pointing to modest selling at the open. Both the euro and Mexican peso are trading only slightly below Friday’s closing levels, even after Trump threatened to impose 30-percent tariffs on imports from August 1 in a pair of early-Saturday missives. Traders...

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11 Jul 2025

Dollar Firms As Trump’s Letter-Writing Campaign Accelerates

The dollar looks set to end the week on a more supportive footing after Donald Trump redoubled his efforts to revive the forgotten art of letter writing, threatening to substantially raise tariffs on Canadian goods and warning that he would soon announce increases in levies on most other countries. Ten-year yields are little changed, equity futures are setting up for a softer session, and currencies like the euro and Mexican peso are retreating as investors brace for the next round of trade threats. The European Union will get a letter “today or tomorrow,” NBC quoted the president saying last night,...

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