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Market Brief, North America

22 Jan 2026

Relief rally supports additional market gains

Markets look set to extend gains for a second day after President Donald Trump ruled out the use of force and retreated from threats to seize Greenland through economic coercion. The dollar is firmer, yields are steadier, and stock futures are pointing to a stronger open as a relief rally plays out across asset classes. Measures of implied volatility in Treasury, equity, and foreign exchange markets are all coming down as investors reduce protection against tail exposures, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars are outperforming their safe-haven brethren. Late yesterday, Trump said he would not proceed with...

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21 Jan 2026

Selloff loses steam, traders remain on tenterhooks

After several days of turbulence, selling pressure is easing across financial markets, suggesting that investors expect US president Donald Trump to adopt a less confrontational approach when meeting in person with his counterparts at the World Economic Forum in Davos later today. The dollar is steadying against its peers, Treasury yields are stabilising near recent highs, and equity futures are pointing to a modest advance when North American markets open. Scarring will remain. For the second time in a year, markets have warned that the consequences of the president’s actions could weigh most heavily on the United States itself, not...

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20 Jan 2026

‘Sell America’ trade intensifies

Equity futures, Treasuries, and the dollar are down for a second day as investors shun US assets in the aftermath of the weekend’s Greenland-related tariff threats from Donald Trump, and selling in Japanese bond markets puts upward pressure on global yields. On Saturday, Trump threatened to impose import taxes on goods from European countries until they allow the US to buy the Danish territory, beginning with a 10-percent levy on February 1 and increasing to 25-percent on June 1. He then sent a message to Norway’s Prime Minister saying that he no longer feels obliged to “think purely of Peace”...

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19 Jan 2026

Dollar tumbles as Trump renews tariff threats

Good morning. The dollar is back on the defensive as investors digest weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who threatened tariffs on European countries that do not support his push to acquire Greenland and later sent a letter to foreign embassies linking the move to Norway’s refusal to award him the Nobel Peace Prize. US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday and liquidity conditions are thin, but the greenback is trading roughly a quarter-percent lower against a basket of its rivals, and the euro is climbing even as European leaders prepare a package of retaliatory measures. The...

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15 Jan 2026

Currency ranges tighten as complacency sets in

Good morning. Currency markets have slipped back into extremely tight ranges as geopolitical fears recede and incoming data point to “Goldilocks” conditions across much of the advanced world. Realised volatility across asset classes remains exceptionally low, and implied volatility measures show investors are unworried about shocks: the VIX has fallen well below traditional fear thresholds, the MOVE* Treasury index is at its lowest since 2021, and average six-month implied volatility in the major foreign exchange pairs has dropped to levels not seen since early 2024. The British pound is struggling to make headway, even after new data showed the economy...

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