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Market Brief, North America

24 Jun 2025

Fragile Middle Eastern Truce Boosts Risk Assets

Oil prices are down dramatically, shares are gaining, and the dollar is retreating on signs that the latest round of hostilities in the Middle East is drawing to a close. A truce between Israel and Iran, announced by US President Donald Trump late last night, was temporarily interrupted by accusations of missile launches from both sides, but now appears to be holding. Crude benchmarks plunged earlier in yesterday’s session when Tehran launched a well-telegraphed missile attack on US assets in Qatar, avoiding an escalation that might have led to a disruption in global energy supplies. Treasury yields tumbled yesterday when...

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23 Jun 2025

Markets Shrug Off US Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

The weekend’s US bombing raids on Iran left measures of global risk appetite essentially unchanged, suggesting that traders expect Tehran to respond in a limited fashion. Both the Brent international crude benchmark and the North American West Texas Intermediate grade are ratcheting lower, with front-month prices slipping to $77 per barrel and $73 respectively after briefly hitting five-month highs in overnight trading. Treasury yields are holding steady, North American equity futures are pointing to a solidly-positive open, and the dollar is trading only modestly higher against a basket of its major counterparts. Headline risks remain substantial, but we think a...

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19 Jun 2025

Risk Sentiment Deteriorates As Liquidity Thins And Geopolitical Tensions Increase

The dollar is holding steady amid holiday-thinned trading conditions as investors process a raft of central bank policy announcements and brace for a spike in geopolitical tensions in the hours or days ahead. Treasury yields are down, equity futures are soft, and safe-haven currencies are outperforming their risk-sensitive counterparts after reports circulated suggesting that the US will join Israeli bombardment of Iran in the coming days and President Donald Trump said “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do”. An escalation in the war is seen raising the risk of...

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18 Jun 2025

Investors Keep Powder Dry In Run-Up to Fed Meeting

The dollar is giving back yesterday’s gains, Treasury yields are holding steady, and North American equity markets are moving sideways as investors await news on the US role in the Israel-Iran conflict — and brace for this afternoon’s Federal Reserve decision. Oil prices leapt higher during yesterday’s session after US president Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” in a social media post, suggesting that American forces could soon join the fray, and raising the risk of a wider escalation in the war, but are now subsiding as traders monitor the newswires. The world’s most powerful central bank is widely...

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17 Jun 2025

Dollar’s Decline Remains Intact Even As Risk Backdrop Worsens

The dollar is up slightly this morning, but remains on course toward its worst year-to-date performance in this century, even as geopolitical risks simmer in the background and the Federal Reserve grapples with a raft of potential inflation risks. Yields are under pressure, equity markets are headed for a mixed open, and measures of risk sentiment are softening ahead of an expected Israeli assault on Tehran later today — as well as tomorrow’s all-important Fed meeting. American consumers turned slightly more cautious in May, paying little heed to a 90-day tariff pause announced by the Trump administration — and the...

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