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Market Brief, North America

11 Feb 2026

Upside payrolls surprise fuels dollar rally

After slowing sharply over the last year, the US job creation engine showed signs of accelerating last month, frustrating market expectations for a rapid easing cycle from the Federal Reserve, and allaying fears of a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending. According to delayed data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 130,000 jobs were added in January—topping the 68,000-position consensus forecast—while the unemployment rate slid to a rounded 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent previously. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month, jumping from the 0.1-percent pace set in the prior month, and rising 3.7percent in year-over-year terms. Revisions muddied...

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10 Feb 2026

Dollar softens as US consumers slow spending growth

The dollar is weakening and yields are nudging lower after US consumer spending surprisingly flatlined in December, underpinning expectations for more monetary easing in the months ahead. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants were little changed over the holidays after a 0.6 percent gain in November, and so-called “control group” retail sales—with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded—fell -0.1 percent, missing forecasts set at 0.4 percent. The US remains the global consumer of last resort—overall retail sales were still up 4 percent year-over-year in 2025,...

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09 Feb 2026

Political developments roil currency markets

Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is under pressure after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators have instructed the country’s commercial banks to cut their holdings of American government debt, noting threats posed by “concentration risks and market volatility”. According to the report, officials verbally advised financial institutions to reduce new purchases and scale down existing positions in recent weeks. Benchmark ten-year yields are up five basis points, and the trade-weighted dollar is down roughly half a percent. The policy shift is less dramatic than the headline suggests—implying that the kneejerk market reaction should fade—but is important nonetheless. Even when...

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06 Feb 2026

Investors cautiously step into market wreckage seeking bargains

After several sessions of violent, whiplash price action in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and high-beta technology stocks, investors are hesitantly stepping back in this morning, driving a mean-reversion process across asset classes. The US dollar—which enjoyed a brief, and increasingly-unusual bout of safe-haven support earlier in the week—is retreating against most of its major peers, while Treasury yields are drifting lower and equity futures are pointing to a partial clawback of yesterday’s losses. The pattern of returns over the last week suggests that the recent market turbulence reflects narrative exhaustion rather than a decisive shift in macro fundamentals. Although thousands of...

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05 Feb 2026

Currency market fireworks remain subdued as traders process conflicting signals

Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are caught between conflicting forces as precious metals extend their decline and a sell-off in technology stocks shows signs of exhaustion. Gold and silver prices are tumbling once again, North American equity futures are setting up for modest gains at the open, and the dollar is advancing against most of its major peers amid choppy trading conditions. The pound is down sharply after the Bank of England narrowly avoided cutting rates in its latest decision, shocking observers expecting a far more neutral outcome. Four of nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted to cut rates—well beyond...

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