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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

Caution Prevails as Fed Officials Make Hawkish Noises

Risk appetite is fading ahead of the North American open as traders brace for a more hawkish turn from Jerome Powell during tomorrow’s semi-annual Congressional testimony. Officials seem to be growing uncomfortable with the recent easing in financial conditions. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic last night suggested that the central bank’s first rate cut was likely to land in the third quarter, with a pause followed by moves spaced out over time. “Given the uncertainty,” he said, “I think there is some appeal to acting and then seeing how participants in the markets, business leaders, and families...

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Sigh of relief

• Inflation focus. Strength in core inflation across Europe raised some concerns, but the US PCE deflator matched analyst predictions.• FX swings. There was a modest burst of intra-day FX vol overnight. The USD recouped its post PCE dip with month-end rebalancing a factor.• AUD & JPY. On net, AUD is little changed. Yesterday’s ‘hawkish’ BoJ rhetoric could be positive factor. A lower USD/JPY normally translates to a higher AUD. Inflation was in focus overnight with European country level readings and the US PCE deflator (the US Fed’s preferred gauge) released. The results generated a bit of intra-session volatility across...

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Antipodean FX underperformance

• Negative vibes. A slightly more bearish tone ahead of tonight’s US PCE deflator data. Equities & bond yields a bit lower. AUD & NZD underperform.• RBNZ holds. RBNZ clipped the markets hawkish wings. Rates held steady & odds of another hike were watered down. NZD fell. This dragged on the AUD.• AU CPI. Headline inflation failed to re-accelerate in January. But there was little new info on services prices. AU retail sales released today. A slightly more bearish tone across markets overnight as traders gear up for the release of the US PCE deflator (the US Fed’s preferred inflation...

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Will the RBNZ re-start is hiking cycle?

• Low vol. US/European equities consolidated, while bond yields nudged up. FX markets were well contained. AUD range traded over the past 24hrs.• RBNZ decision. RBNZ meets today. Markets are assigning a ~21% chance they hike rates. No change could see the NZD fall & AUD/NZD snap back.• AU CPI. January reading of the monthly CPI indicator due today. Annual inflation forecast to re-accelerate. This may catch the eye & give the AUD a boost. Another uneventful session overnight. US and European equities consolidated (S&P500 +0.1%), with yesterday’s lift in Asia not flowing through (China’s CSI300 index rose 1.2%, its...

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Rate markets continue to adjust

• Yields rise. Near-term rate cut bets continue to be trimmed back. This pushed up European & US bond yields, with EUR a little firmer.• Low vol. Outside of bonds, volatility across other major asset markets is below average. Japanese inflation, Fed speakers & US data in focus today.• AUD softer. Lower base metal prices have exerted a bit of pressure on the AUD. But correlations between the AUD & iron ore aren’t what they used to be. The subdued market performance has continued with relatively modest moves across most asset classes at the start of the week. As our...

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