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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

Central banks & US jobs in focus this week

• Positive tone. US bond yields lost ground as more US data underwhelmed. This gave US stocks a boost on Friday & exerted pressure on the USD.• AUD moves. AUD edged higher. Domestic & offshore data might generate some intermittent AUD swings this week.• Event radar. Locally, Q1 GDP is due (Weds). Offshore, the BoC (Weds) & ECB (Thurs) could cut rates, while the US jobs report (Fri) will be a focal point. There was a more upbeat tone across markets at the end of last week. US and European equities rose on Friday. The S&P500 outperformed (+0.8%), although this...

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US events in focus

• Shaky sentiment. US equities, yields & the USD a bit lower as Q1 US GDP was revised down. AUD rebounds up towards ~$0.6630 (its 1-month average)• US politics. Former President Trump found guilty. Market impact has (so far) been limited. More twists & turns in US politics look likely.• Data flow. China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, & US PCE deflator due today. Moderating US inflation & positive data elsewhere could weigh on the USD. There was a ‘risk off’ tone across most markets overnight, although in FX the moves didn’t follow the usual script. US equities slipped back (S&P500 -0.6%)...

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No news is good news

• Quiet start. UK & US on holidays. European equities rise & bond yields slip back. Upbeat risk tone weighed on the USD & supported the AUD.• ECB speakers. Several ECB members spoke with a rate cut next week strongly hinted at. What happens after that will depend on the data.• AU data. Retail sales due today. Monthly CPI indicator released tomorrow. Weaker data could exert some near-term downward pressure on the AUD. It has been a quiet start to the week across markets, unsurprising given the UK and US were off enjoying a long weekend and the limited news...

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Twists & turns

• US data. US PMIs stronger than expected. This fanned the flames of the ‘higher for longer’ rates view. US bond yields rose & equities dipped.• FX moves. USD a bit firmer, but net FX moves have been modest. AUD extended its pull-back to be near ~$0.66, in-line with its 1-month average.• Data calendar. A few bits & pieces released today such as UK retail sales & US durable goods orders. Next week AU retail sales & monthly CPI are due. Some more twists and turns in the global economic data with the US business PMIs for May coming in...

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Data reinforcing central bank divergence

• Consolidation. US equities ticked up & based metals rose, while yields dipped despite ‘hawkish’ Fed rhetoric. USD & AUD tread water.• Divergence. Slower Canadian inflation bolstered BoC rate cut bets. Will today’s UK CPI do the same? Divergence with the RBA is AUD supportive.• RBNZ today. Rates expected to be held steady. Restrictive settings are working. Will the RBNZ tweak its forecast track to show earlier rate cuts? Another quiet night with limited net moves across the major markets. In contrast to the modest dip in European equities US stock markets ticked up again with the S&P500 (+0.3%) recording...

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