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14 May 2026

Yuan step at a time

It has become a cliché to say that America and China operate on entirely different historical timescales—but sometimes clichés contain a grain of truth. As Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping this week, talk has turned to the possibility of a currency accord, akin to the Plaza Agreement of the 1980s, in which China agrees to let the renminbi appreciate. Anyone expecting an immediate breakthrough would do well to remember that Beijing measures progress in decades, not news cycles. On paper, the renminbi looks firm, trading near a nominal three-year high as today’s state banquets get underway. China no longer intervenes...

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Trading ranges compress as newsflow slows

Good morning. Price action in currency markets is slowing to a crawl and the dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains as traders keep their powder dry amid a lack of clear directional catalysts. Brent crude futures are holding near $106 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate is flirting with $102 after India said one of its vessels had come under attack off the coast of Oman and multiple sources reported an Iranian seizure of a ship anchored off the United Arab Emirates. Equity indices are advancing on reports that the US will permit Nvidia to sell its second-most advanced artificial intelligence...

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