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29 Oct 2025

Too hot to handle

• Fed gyrations. US Fed cut rates but Chair Powell pushed back on views it will go again in December. Higher US yields helped the USD intra-day.• AU CPI. Sizeable upside surprise in Q3 AU inflation. RBA expected to stay on hold. We think this should be AUD supportive over the medium-term.• Macro events. BoJ meets today. ECB holds court tonight. Also on the radar is a meeting between President’s Trump and Xi. Global Trends Ahead of today’s meeting between President’s Trump and Xi (from ~1pm AEDT) central banks were in focus overnight. Outside of bond yields there were relatively...

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Fed delivers risk management cut, markets hold gains

The Federal Reserve cut rates for a second time this year in a move best characterised as a “risk management” cut, as officials try to prevent nascent signs of a slowdown in labour markets from turning into a full-blown downturn. In a well-telegraphed and fully-priced decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted along divided 10-to-2 lines to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to between 3.75 and 4.00 percent, with Trump appointee Stephen Miran dissenting from the majority in favour of a bigger move, while Jeffery Schmid elected to stay on hold. In the statement setting out...

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Bank of Canada cuts, telegraphs an end to its easing cycle

The Bank of Canada delivered another rate cut this morning, as widely expected, but clearly signalled that policy rates are now near neutral—implying that further easing is unlikely in the absence of a material shift in economic conditions. Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent after cutting by the same amount in September. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers highlighted growth risks as the biggest motivating factor for the move, saying “The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces...

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‘Perfect storm’ boosts currencies and risk assets

A confluence of positive catalysts is lifting risk-sensitive currencies and asset prices this morning. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut and bring its quantitative-tightening programme to an end this afternoon. According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump is weighing a reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports, and market sentiment has been further buoyed by gains in the world’s most valuable company after Trump said he would discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell artificial-intelligence chips with Xi Jinping at their meeting tomorrow. Equity futures are climbing ahead of the open, ten-year Treasury yields are anchored below the...

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