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20 Oct 2025

Risk sentiment turning the corner

• Market swings. A few bursts of volatility the past few weeks. Sentiment was positive overnight with the S&P500 rising & AUD clawing back lost ground.• US data. US Government Shutdown remains in place. But given its importance the delayed US CPI report will be released this week (Fri night AEDT).• RBA pricing. Uptick in AU unemployment has seen markets price in a greater chance of another RBA cut. Q3 CPI due next week. This may temper views. Global Trends There have been a few bursts of volatility over the past week or so stemming from a mix of renewed...

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Stress eases, currency markets mean-revert

Financial markets are stabilising this morning as credit concerns and trade tensions begin to subside. After a brief period of whiplash on Friday, the dollar is inching higher against a basket of its most-traded rivals, benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding just above the 4 percent threshold, and US equity futures are pointing to a stronger open. Most major pairs are back to Thursday levels. Measures of implied volatility are slipping from levels hit last week when losses relating to an auto parts supplier and a subprime auto lender emerged, followed shortly thereafter by writedowns at regional lenders including Zion’s...

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