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30 Sep 2025

Another US government shutdown

• Holding firm. US equities ticked up overnight, while bond yields consolidated & USD weakened. AUD rose with AUD also outperforming on the crosses.• RBA holds. No change by RBA. Comments leant more ‘hawkish’. Sticky inflation & improving growth means another rate cut isn’t guaranteed.• US shutdown. Without a last minute deal another US government shutdown will kick off today (~2pm AEST). We think this may be a drag on the USD. Global Trends Modest moves across markets overnight with another US government shutdown looking likely to kick off today (see below). US and European equities ticked up with the...

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RBA: any more easing left?

As widely anticipated, particularly after last week’s hotter monthly Australian CPI figures, the RBA kept the cash rate at 3.6% at today’s meeting. The Board’s decision was unanimous, and there was little firm guidance suggesting any degree of urgency to lower interest rates again in the near-term, in our view. From our perspective key comments within the post meeting statement leant relatively more “hawkish”. More specifically the RBA noted that based on the recent data Q3 inflation might be “higher than expected” and that the decline in core inflation has slowed. This is the signal coming from our pipeline inflation...

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