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24 Sep 2025

24 Sep 2025

Inflation & the RBA

• Market swings. US equities dipped again, while US yields & USD rose. NZD remains on backfoot. AUD unwound yesterday’s CPI induced gains.• AU CPI. Inflation hotter than expected in August. Data raises doubts about further RBA rate cuts. Relative policy trends can be AUD supportive. Global Trends There were a few more market wobbles overnight with US equities declining modestly for the second straight session (S&P500 -0.3%), US bond yields ticking up ~2-4bps across the curve, and the USD clawing back ground. The EUR (the major USD alternative) slipped down towards ~$1.1740 (the lower end of its ~2-week range),...

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24 Sep 2025

FX Momentum Dies As Fed Officials Outline Dual-Sided Risks

After most Federal Reserve officials—with the notable exception of Stephen Miran—sounded a consistently-cautious and incrementally-hawkish tone in appearances during the early part of the week, the US dollar is staging a recovery against its major peers—including the euro, pound, yen, and Canadian dollar—Treasury yields are moving sideways, and North American equity futures are setting up for small gains at the open. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell didn’t rock any market boats in yesterday’s economic outlook speech. Speaking in Providence, Rhode Island, he noted that both ends of the central bank’s dual inflation and employment mandate are moving in the wrong...

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