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03 Sep 2025

03 Sep 2025

Sentiment turnaround

• Positive tone. Improved risk sentiment overnight with equities rising, bond yields falling, & the USD weaker. AUD/USD rebounded.• US data. US job openings weaker than expected. Cracks in the US jobs market are widening. US Fed looks set to lower rates over the next few meetings.• AU GDP. Growth stronger than forecast. Private sector activity picked up. RBA Gov. Bullock indicated if this continues “may not” need as many rate cuts. Global Trends A bit of a reversal of fortunes overnight with the previous sessions modest bout of risk aversion unwinding. European and US equities rose with the tech-focused...

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03 Sep 2025

Strains Grow As Investors Shun Long-Term Debt

A global selloff in long-term government bond markets is extending this morning amid a wholesale reappraisal of sovereign debt and inflation risks. Thirty-year securities are coming under the heaviest pressure, with US Treasury yields hovering near 5 percent, Japanese ultra-long bonds holding near record highs*, and British gilts offering their highest rates since 1998. Shorter-dated yields remain comparatively stable, but curves are steepening across the advanced economies as investors demand higher premiums for holding long-term debt. We think technical factors are at work, to some extent. After a later-summer lull, bond markets have been flooded with new issuance in recent...

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