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10 Apr 2025

10 Apr 2025

Made in America

• Risk wobbles. Concerns about a US-China trade war remain. US equities slipped back & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD pushed higher.• Tariff impacts. US’ effective tariff rate is still very high. Downside US growth risks remain. This & reduced investor confidence are USD negatives.• Volatility. More headline driven volatility should be anticipated over the period ahead. There’s still a lot of water to go under the tariff bridge. Global Trends Financial markets remain lively with the chopping and changing in US trade policy still firmly in the driver’s seat. Yesterday’s positive jolt from the announced ‘pause’ in...

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10 Apr 2025

Relief Rally Runs Out of Steam Despite Tame US Inflation Data

Stock-index futures are edging lower and the dollar is weakening once more as the initial optimism sparked by yesterday’s tariff reversal yields to a more measured assessment of the risks still facing the US and world economies. Equity futures are setting up for a circa-1.5-percent loss at the North American open, ten-year Treasury yields are stuck near the 4.3 percent mark, and the greenback is heading toward a third day of losses against its major counterparts. The safe-haven Japanese yen is in the ascendant, and the euro is climbing after European Union officials announced plans to postpone retaliatory measures against...

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