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18 Feb 2025

18 Feb 2025

RBA rate relief

• RBA relief. As anticipated RBA cut rates yesterday. But was ‘hawkish’ in terms of future moves. Data will drive the RBA’s decisions. AUD near 2-month highs.• RBNZ today. RBNZ expected to cut rates by 50bps for the 3rd straight meeting today. But will it signal a more measured approach from here?• Global trends. Bond yields rose & USD ticked up overnight. UK wages & Canadian CPI surprised to the upside. Global inflation risks remain. Global Trends Market moves have been modest overnight despite a few geopolitical and macro developments hitting the wires. In terms of geopolitics officials from the...

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18 Feb 2025

RBA: Gradual ‘relief’ cycle kicks off

After delivering a string of rate hikes over 2022/23 and holding steady since November 2023 as it battled against inflation the RBA announced a bit of interest rate ‘relief’ at today’s meeting. The RBA cut the official cash rate by 25bps, lowering it to 4.1%. This was largely expected with it being ~90% priced in before the meeting, and with 30 of 34 economists surveyed forecasting it. The move will provide some income support for indebted mortgage holders and interest rate sensitive businesses. But it isn’t a large jolt. On our figuring, a 0.25% reduction lowers the monthly repayment on...

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18 Feb 2025

Dollar Licks Its Wounds As Inflation Accelerates Slightly in Canada

The dollar is advancing incrementally against its major rivals this morning after suffering extensive losses in the last two weeks on a softening in US economic data and a reversal in bets on Donald Trump’s trade plans. A disappointing payrolls report, several noisy but ultimately calming inflation prints, evidence of a slowing in consumer spending, and a less-aggressive-than-feared reciprocal tariff announcement on Thursday helped bring yields down in the last week and a half, and—despite a small advance overnight—the greenback is now down roughly three quarters of a percentage point in trade-weighted terms. Canadian headline and core inflation measures accelerated...

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