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04 Feb 2025

04 Feb 2025

Will the rebound in sentiment last?

• Positive vibes. Yesterday’s news tariffs on Mexico & Canada have been delayed boosted risk sentiment & weighed on the USD. But will it last?• Tariff risks. China announced countermeasures. Risk of the US imposing tariffs on EU remains. More headline-driven volatility likely over period ahead.• AUD & NZD. AUD bounced above its 1-month average. NZD also rebounded, but higher NZ unemployment reinforces RBNZ rate cut expectations. Global Trends Yesterdays news that the proposed US tariffs on Mexico and Canada would be delayed by a month improved the market mood. Indeed, even news out of China that it will impose...

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04 Feb 2025

Regularly-Scheduled Programming Resumes

A sense of normalcy is returning to financial markets this morning after Donald Trump backed off threats against Canada and Mexico, granting the countries a 30-day reprieve from his proposed 25-percent tariffs. The dollar is retreating amid sluggish price action in currency markets, ten-year yields are down as inflation expectations recede, and equity markets are setting up for a soft open. Measures of implied volatility are coming off their highs, but remain elevated relative to recent history. The stay of execution was achieved after leaders in each country agreed to bolster border security in telephone calls with Trump. Bafflingly, the...

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