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05 Nov 2024

05 Nov 2024

The race is on

• Getting set. Risk assets outperformed overnight & the USD lost ground. A paring back of ‘Trump trades’ continued ahead of the big event.• US election. Voting progressively closes later today. The battleground states are key. Bursts of market volatility look likely as results flow out.• RBA holds. No change in rates or guidance. The RBA is standing out from the pack. Gradual/modest policy easing anticipated over 2025. Risk assets outperformed overnight as voting in the US election got underway. Given the narrowing in opinion polls and probability gauges over recent days market participants have continued to hedge their bets...

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05 Nov 2024

Markets Enter Risk-Aversion Mode Ahead of Election

The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are inching higher, and equity indices are setting up for a positive open as the world’s worst reality show enters its final act. Elements of the ‘Trump trade’ are recovering after yesterday’s selloff, with many investors back to betting on the former president after the weekend’s polls suggested that markets were underestimating Kamala Harris’ electoral chances. There are other event risks to consider. The Bank of England is expected to deliver another quarter-point rate cut on Thursday morning, with traders paying particular attention to how policymakers describe the impact of last week’s budget...

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