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17 Oct 2024

17 Oct 2024

Macro divergence

• Divergence. European equities rose, while the S&P500 consolidated. US yields increased. EUR softer. Despite a firmer USD the AUD edged up.• Macro signals. ECB cut rates again. More easing expected. US retail sales stronger than anticipated. This & US election risks supported the USD.• AU jobs. AUD outperformed after the AU employment report was stronger than projected. RBA on a different path to its peers. China data due today. Economic divergence between the Eurozone and US was on show once again overnight. As anticipated the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25bps, the third move this easing cycle....

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17 Oct 2024

US Consumer Strength Drives Dollar Higher

The dollar and Treasury yields are surging, and equity markets are setting up for a strong open after new data showed the US consumer remaining alive and well in September, further reducing the need for an emergency-style response from the Federal Reserve. The Canadian dollar is taking it on the chin as expected rate differentials widen in the greenback’s favour, with a jumbo-sized rate cut at next week’s Bank of Canada now overwhelmingly favoured by economists and markets. Retail sales beat forecasts in September by a wide margin, with the headline print climbing 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, powered...

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