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04 Oct 2024

Payrolls Smash Forecasts, Propelling Dollar Higher

The US job creation engine snapped back into high gear in September, crushing odds on a second outsized rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November meeting. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 254,000 jobs were added in the month, topping the 150,000 consensus forecast, and revisions to the July and August prints saw them rise by a combined 72,000 positions. Wage gains remained remarkably strong, pointing to an improvement in worker bargaining power. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month, down slightly from 0.5 percent in the prior month, and were up 4 percent year-over-year....

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Caution Grows as Payrolls Loom

Traders are signing pre-nuptial agreements with their positions this morning, avoiding exposure to downside risk ahead of a potentially-pivotal non-farm payrolls report. The dollar’s gains are slowing after the biggest weekly advance in six months, Treasury yields are steady, and North American equity futures are flat Uncertainty is high. Consensus estimates suggest that the US added 150,000 jobs last month – a pace that would keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.2 percent – but forecasts are widely dispersed, from 70,000 on the low end to 225,000 on the high end. A surprise could radically reshape expectations for November’s Federal...

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