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27 Sep 2024

US Inflation Subsides and Canadian Economy Flatlines

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued its moderation in August and personal spending missed expectations, helping bolster bets on a second consecutive oversized rate cut at the central bank’s November meeting. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.1 percent from the prior month, undershooting market forecasts for a 0.2 percent increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth rose to 2.7 percent, aligning with economist estimates as base effects shifted comparisons. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.1 percent relative to the prior month, and...

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Currency Markets Trade Mixed as Optimism Grows

The mean-reversion process that began in foreign exchange markets this summer is continuing this morning, with the dollar trading flat and other majors reversing early-year moves. A steady drumbeat of economic stimulus announcements from China is interacting with growing bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other central banks to support global risk appetite, pouring rocket fuel into equity markets and risk-sensitive currency pairs, while driving implied volatility levels lower. Inflation in France and Spain decelerated more dramatically in September than had been expected, reinforcing market bets on more easing coming at the European Central...

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