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05 Sep 2024

05 Sep 2024

US payrolls in focus

• Hold the line. US S&P500 dipped, as did US yields & the USD. US ADP employment underwhelmed. But this hasn’t been a great guide for payrolls.• US employment. Non-farm payrolls tonight. USD (& AUD) reaction likely to be binary. Stronger (weaker) data could be USD positive (negative).• RBA rhetoric. Gov. Bullock held firm. Level of demand & inflation still high. Rate cuts look some time away. Policy divergence AUD supportive. Recent market trends generally extended overnight, although the size of the moves has been more limited. The US S&P500 (-0.3%) slipped back for the third straight day, something which...

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05 Sep 2024

Dollar Slips on Renewed Recession Fears

The dollar is back on the defensive after new data showed the US labour market cooling rapidly, increasing odds on a dramatic opening salvo in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle later this month. Treasury yields are stabilising after yesterday’s tumble and equity futures are advancing ahead of this morning’s weekly jobless claims number, but directional position-taking remains restrained, with tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report poised to play a pivotal role in determining market outcomes across virtually every major asset class. The number of job openings fell in July to the lowest level since the start of 2021, according to yesterday’s Job...

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