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04 Sep 2024

Rate expectations jolted

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped again, while bond yields tumbled & the USD softened. JPY strengthened & the AUD clawed back a bit of ground.• US jolts. US job openings declined. US labour market is rebalancing. Fed rate cuts are coming. Non-farm payrolls will make or break the case for 50bps.• AU GDP. Weak growth in Q2, but the level of activity remains high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks today on “the costs of high inflation”. A mixed performance across markets with some of the moves from the previous day extending while others, particularly in FX, partially unwound. European and US...

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04 Sep 2024

Bank of Canada Cuts, Softens Dovish Stance

As had been widely expected, the Bank of Canada delivered a third consecutive rate cut this morning, and language in the accompanying communications helped prepare the ground for further easing in the coming months – but officials stopped short of pulling the fire alarm, suggesting that cuts will proceed at a gradual pace. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers acknowledged a continued easing in price pressures, with the Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation slowing further, and shelter cost increases beginning to decelerate. Overall, “excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while...

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04 Sep 2024

Foreshocks Rumble Financial Markets

Seismic activity is intensifying across financial markets ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A series of temblors hit during yesterday’s session, with Nvidia suffering the largest nominal one-day wipeout in market history, the S&P 500 falling by more than 2 percent, the VIX “fear index” jumping by more than a third, and currency markets seeing at least three wholesale trend reversals in the space of eight hours. Today looks set to deliver a more muted version of the same, with futures pointing to renewed selling, Treasury yields inching lower, and the dollar slipping against its major rivals ahead of the...

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04 Sep 2024

Australia GDP: growth vs levels

The dated Q2 Australian GDP confirmed what we should have already known. The growth pulse is subdued with higher interest rates and cost of living squeeze working to constrain consumer spending, construction, and broader business investment. The Australian economy expanded by just 0.2% in Q2, lowering the annual run-rate to a meagre 1%pa (chart 1). Outside of COVID this is the slowest annual pace since the early-1990’s recession with household consumption particularly weak despite the ongoing drawdown of COVID-era ‘excess savings’ (chart 2). Indeed, slicing and dicing the data further shows that growth across the private sector has stalled with...

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