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05 Aug 2024

05 Aug 2024

Panic at the disco

• Equity slump. Large falls in global equities. Japan’s Nikkei plunged ~12% yesterday. Fears of a ‘hard landing’ have rattled nerves. Volatility spikes.• Driving factors. Soft US jobs report, lofty valuations, & an unwind of built-up Japan/JPY trades have combined. But credit spreads haven’t moved much.• RBA today. AUD near ~$0.65. Negative sentiment has seen markets factor in rapid-fire RBA rate cuts. We think things may have moved too far, too fast. Crash, bang, wallop. Markets have been in a tailspin over the past few sessions with larger falls in equities, a spike in volatility, and substantial repricing in interest...

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05 Aug 2024

Global Financial Markets Crack, Volatility Surges

A long period of unusual calm in financial markets was shattered over the weekend, when the Japanese stock market imploded and cross-border carry trades unwound in a violent manner. Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed down 12.4 percent—marking its worst selloff since the “Black Monday” crash in 1987—and the yen is trading near the 142 threshold after having hit 161 less than two weeks ago. Volatility expectations are soaring. Safe-haven Treasury yields are plummeting, with the policy-sensitive two-year returning less than 3.7 percent—down from 4.4 percent early last week—and the ten year seeing similar dynamics. Futures prices show the Nasdaq headed...

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