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16 Jul 2024

16 Jul 2024

Mixed messages

• Mixed markets. S&P500 & gold hit record highs. Bond yields slipped back, while the USD index consolidated. AUD gave back a bit of ground.• US data. US retail sales better than expected in June. But the underlying trend still shows sluggish momentum. Fed rate cuts priced in from September.• NZ CPI. NZ headline inflation slowed in Q2. The door to RBNZ rate cuts continues to open. Australian jobs report released tomorrow. Mixed performance across markets overnight. US equities continued to power ahead with the S&P500 (+0.6%) hitting another record. The S&P500 is now up ~24% compared to a year...

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16 Jul 2024

Dollar and Loonie Head in Opposing Directions After Data Deluge

Canadian headline inflation decelerated as expected last month, but the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada remained surprisingly sticky, arguably making a back-to-back rate cut at the central bank’s July meeting marginally less likely. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index decelerating to 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in June, down from the 2.9 percent increase recorded in May and matching consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, prices fell -0.1 percent. As has been the case since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates, shelter costs did the...

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16 Jul 2024

“Trump Bump” Fades

Currency markets are stabilising as Sunday’s rally in the dollar reverses, suggesting that the weekend’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump has not impacted the near-term investment outlook in any meaningful way. The greenback is holding steady against a weakening safe-haven yen as two- and ten-year Treasury yields slip from yesterday’s highs, the pound and Canadian dollar are flat, and the Mexican peso is clawing its way higher. With the exception of the loonie, every major currency is up against the dollar on a five-day basis. In equity markets, volatility expectations remain elevated around the November election date, but Donald Trump’s...

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