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10 Jul 2024

10 Jul 2024

Will the US CPI jolt markets?

• Mixed markets. Equities push higher with long-end yields a bit lower. USD consolidates. AUD treading water near the top of its multi-month range.• RBNZ shift. A change in the RBNZ’s tone. Door to rate cuts opening. AUD/NZD’s upswing continues. AUD/NZD at its highest since Q4 2022.• US CPI. Challenging base-effects could keep annual inflation steady. But the monthly pulse expected to be soft. Something for everyone likely in the data. There was generally an upbeat tone across markets overnight, although that didn’t flow through to the major currencies as they remained range bound. US equities powered ahead with a...

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10 Jul 2024

Markets Hold Firm After Cautious Fedspeak

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was disappointingly non-committal on the likelihood of a September rate cut in yesterday’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, explicitly saying “I’m not going to be sending any signals about the timing of future actions”. The Fed Funds futures curve remained essentially unchanged, with two moves priced in this year, and roughly four expected by June 2025. Dovish hints were there, though, for those determined to find them. In noting that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” saying that labour costs are “not a source of inflationary pressures now,” and emphasising the...

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10 Jul 2024

AUD/NZD – Diverging macro fundamentals

No change in policy from the RBNZ at today’s meeting, as widely expected. And given this was an interim review meeting, not a full forecast update, there was another fairly short post meeting statement. That said, we think were noteworthy tweaks in the RBNZ’s tone and guidance. After leading the central bank charge during the global tightening phase and maintaining a ‘hawkish’ bias for some time, the RBNZ has started to soften its message as the harsher NZ economic reality appears to be hitting home. This is no surprise to us as we never bought into the RBNZ’s surprisingly ‘hawkish’...

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