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02 Jul 2024

02 Jul 2024

Mixed signals

• Mixed markets. Divergence between US & European equities, while long-end bond yields & the USD gave back a little ground. AUD a touch firmer.• US macro. Fed Chair Powell noted there has been “quite a bit” of inflation progress. But more is needed. The ‘quits rate’ points to lower wages/inflation.• Data flow. Australian retail sales due today. UK election tomorrow. In the US, ADP employment, services ISM, & jobless claims released tonight. While there was a bit of divergence in equities overnight (the major European markets slipped back ~0.5% and the US S&P500 rose ~0.6% to be within striking...

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02 Jul 2024

Dollar Steamroller Keeps Going

It’s not July 4th yet, but fireworks are going off in the financial markets. The dollar has risen sharply in line with a surge in Treasury yields over the last three sessions after a dismal performance from President Biden in Thursday’s televised debate triggered a dramatic reappraisal in the odds on a Republican sweep. With former president Trump cruising toward a second term and his party seen gaining control over both houses of Congress, markets think increased tariffs, reduced immigration, and lower taxes will lead to higher inflation, larger deficits, and more Treasury issuance. Breakeven inflation rates – a measure...

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