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13 Jun 2024

European political nerves

• European politics. Concerns about the French elections has exerted pressure on the EUR. This helped push AUD/EUR higher.• US data. US PPI undershot forecasts. Inflation tide may be turning. US yields fell, but European issues supported the USD. AUD/USD drifted back.• AU jobs. May jobs report better than expected. At 4% unemployment is still low. Conditions for an RBA interest rate cut still look some time away. US economic and European political crosscurrents have pushed and pulled markets overnight. Data wise, following on from the lower than expected US CPI report US Producer Prices also undershot forecasts. Importantly, the...

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13 Jun 2024

Market Calm Returns

Financial markets are stabilising this morning as investors process the implications of yesterday’s soft US inflation print and more hawkish-than-expected Fed decision. The dollar is moving sideways along with the pound and euro, Treasury yields are slipping, and North American equity futures are setting up for a mixed trading day. The May inflation report was unquestionably positive, consistent with rate cuts beginning in the autumn months. Headline and core consumer price indices increased by less than expected, with declining energy prices putting downward pressure on the all-items measure while a sharp decline in car insurance premiums offset still-stubborn shelter costs....

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