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12 Jun 2024

US inflation vs the Fed

• Data vs the Fed. Softer US inflation overpowered a ‘higher for longer’ Fed message. US yields fell, equities rose, & the USD weakened.• Stale forecasts? Fed assuming only 1 cut this year. Fed has moved to match the market. But Chair Powell noted ‘most’ didn’t tweak forecasts after the CPI.• AUD outperformance. Backdrop helped the AUD outperform. AU jobs report today. Could the ‘labour force lottery’ spring another surprise? US events generated a burst of market friendly volatility overnight with softer than predicted CPI inflation overpowering a more cautious ‘higher for longer’ message from the Federal Reserve. While there...

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Fed Signals One Cut in 2024, Down From Three

As expected, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high for a seventh consecutive meeting this afternoon, but slashed the number of cuts expected this year from three to one – disappointing market participants expecting a more dovish outlook. In the statement setting out its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee repeated a sentence warning that it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”. A sentence that previously complained of a “lack of further progress”...

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US Inflation Decelerates Sharply, Bolstering Rate Cut Odds

Consumer price growth slowed more than expected in the United States last month, setting the stage for a more dovish set of communications from the Federal Reserve when it releases its latest decision this afternoon. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.4 percent in May from the same period last year, up 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This undershot consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which were set at 3.5...

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Markets Settle Into Wait-and-See Mode

The dollar continues to grind higher as traders stick to safe positions ahead of today’s inflation print and Federal Reserve decision. Equity futures are essentially flat, commodity prices are inching lower, and most major currency pairs are treading water. This morning’s consumer inflation report is expected to show price growth cooling, giving Fed officials a modicum of reassurance as they plot a more cautious easing cycle ahead. Economists polled by the major data providers expect headline inflation to have risen 0.1 percent in May, slower than the 0.3 percent pace in the month before, with the core measure holding at...

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