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01 May 2024

01 May 2024

Higher for longer Fed already priced in

• Expectations matter. US Fed failed to live up to the markets “hawkish” thinking. Rates set to stay higher for longer, but this was already priced.• Yields adjust. Fed Chair Powell doesn’t see more hikes. US yields slipped back & the USD softened. AUD recovered ~1/2 of yesterday’s fall.• JPY swings. Another sharp jump in the JPY caught the markets eye after the Fed. US jobs report (Friday night) the next major market event. The US Fed meeting was in focus this morning. As per our thoughts outlined over the past week the Fed failed to live up to very...

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01 May 2024

Fed Signals Concern Over Stubborn Inflation

As expected, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high for a sixth consecutive meeting, and signalled a desire to wait for more data before beginning an easing cycle. In the statement setting out its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee outlined its deepening concern over the pace of disinflation in the US economy, saying “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the committee’s 2-percent inflation objective”, removing a previous reference to inflation that had “eased” over the past year. Risks to accomplishing both sides of the central bank’s...

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01 May 2024

Soaring US Yields Set Stage for Fed’s ‘Hawkish Hold’

The dollar is trading near a five-month high after data showed US wage growth accelerating, further reducing market odds on rate cuts this year. Yesterday’s update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of wage growth saw the Employment Cost Index accelerate to the fastest pace in a year, adding to last week’s inflation data in forcing markets to question whether the central bank will be able to lower interest rates from what it currently sees as restrictive levels. Two-year Treasury yields are holding above the 5 percent threshold and traders are now pricing in just a single rate cut in...

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