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30 Apr 2024

30 Apr 2024

US Fed in the spotlight

• Market turbulence. Stronger US wage data pushed up US yields & dampened the risk sentiment. The stronger USD has seen the AUD fall back.• Regional data. Sluggish China PMIs & downside surprise in AU retail sales also weighed on the AUD. Some heat has come out of RBA rate hike bets.• Fed focus. US Fed decision/press conference the next major events. A ‘hawkish hold’ looks likely, but rate expectations already look to have moved that way. A bout of turbulence overnight with stronger than expected US wages and negative signals from business and consumer surveys dampening the mood. The...

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30 Apr 2024

Canada’s Economy Slows as US Wage Gains Accelerate

The Canadian economy ran out of momentum toward the end of the first quarter, helping bolster market-implied odds on an imminent pivot to easing by the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product missing forecasts with a 0.2 percent expansion in February, following a downwardly-revised 0.5-percent expansion in January. The services sector led gains for a second month, but goods-producing industries flatlined. Just 12 of 20 economic sectors reported positive growth, down from the prior month’s 18. On a year-over-year basis, activity rose 0.8 percent, with the first quarter tracking toward a...

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30 Apr 2024

Fed Fears Dampen Market Enthusiasm

Traders are moving onto a more cautious footing today as the prospect of a ‘hawkish hold’ at tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting comes into view. The dollar is trading on a modestly weaker footing against the yen and euro, but is maintaining strength relative to most other majors as interest rate differentials continue to provide lift. The Canadian dollar is softening ahead of a much-awaited gross domestic product report. Yields were left unmoved yesterday afternoon after the Treasury said it would borrow more than expected over the coming quarter. According to its updated quarterly refunding plans, the federal government will issue...

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30 Apr 2024

USD/JPY & AUD/JPY: A line in the sand?

The wild ride in the JPY over the past few trading sessions has got the markets attention, and raised the question of whether Japanese authorities have (finally) intervened after firing several verbal warning shots? USD/JPY traded in a 3.6% range on Monday, around 4 times its historical norm, as it quickly plunged from a fresh multi-decade peak just above 160 before settling down (now ~156.70). Officials from Japan have kept markets guessing by not confirming or denying whether any action took place. But as the saying goes “if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it...

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