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15 Apr 2024

15 Apr 2024

USD upswing continues

• Shaky sentiment. Middle East jitters were compounded by stronger US retail sales. Higher US bond yields weighed on equities & supported the USD.• AUD lower. Yesterday’s modest AUD recovery unwound overnight. The AUD is near its 2024 lows. USD upswing is pressuring other currencies.• China & Fed speakers. China Q1 GDP released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak. The list includes Fed Chair Powell. After the market mood picked up during yesterday’s Asian trade sentiment soured overnight. The familiar forces of jitters about the situation in the Middle East after Israel vowed to respond and outlook...

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15 Apr 2024

Calm Returns As Geopolitical Shocks Fade

Market reaction to the weekend’s Iranian attack on Israel has been muted. Intentionally or not, Tehran telegraphed its actions well in advance, most of the missiles and drones were downed before reaching military targets, and its diplomats signalled a desire to de-escalate things further, telling the UN “the matter can be deemed concluded”. Israel’s war cabinet authorised retaliatory strikes, but a sternly-worded message from the White House appears to have put reprisals on the back burner for now. Longer-term escalation remains a risk, but investors generally struggle to assign probabilities to more complex, path-dependent outcomes, so the conflict looks likely...

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