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11 Apr 2024

11 Apr 2024

ECB & US PPI calm nerves

• Improved sentiment. A soft US PPI report & ‘dovish’ ECB helped calm market nerves. US equities rebounded. The AUD clawed back some ground.• ECB policy. The door to an ECB rate cut in June looks wide open. Diverging trends with the RBA can be AUD/EUR supportive.• Data calendar. The MAS meets today, China trade data is also due, while in the US a few Fed members speak. After the burst of volatility following the hotter than projected US CPI inflation data markets settled down overnight. US equities rebounded with the S&P500 (+0.7%) back up where it was earlier in...

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11 Apr 2024

Markets Grapple With New Rates Landscape

Markets are extending yesterday’s moves after another hotter-than-expected inflation report delivered a serious blow to market expectations for an imminent pivot to easing from the Federal Reserve. Data out yesterday morning showed core price indices rising more than forecast on a monthly and annual basis in March, making it more difficult to believe that the January and February numbers were lifted by residual seasonality. Jerome Powell’s preferred “supercore” measure accelerated to 5 percent on an annualised basis as core transportation, medical, and education services prices remained stubbornly elevated. Fixed income markets reacted badly. Swap-implied odds on a June rate cut...

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