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27 Feb 2024

27 Feb 2024

Cross-Check: AUD/NZD – Bouncing back

After falling away sharply over the past few weeks AUD/NZD looks to be bouncing back to life. A key catalyst behind the drop in AUD/NZD to multi-quarter lows recently was the NZD supportive upward repricing in NZ interest rate expectations as markets factored in a chance the normally cavalier RBNZ re-starts its hiking cycle. In the end, at today’s meeting, the RBNZ clipped the markets ‘hawkish’ wings. The RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate was held steady at 5.5%, and the underlying tone and updated forecasts watered down the prospect of further tightening this cycle. The implied odds of another rate rise...

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27 Feb 2024

Will the RBNZ re-start is hiking cycle?

• Low vol. US/European equities consolidated, while bond yields nudged up. FX markets were well contained. AUD range traded over the past 24hrs.• RBNZ decision. RBNZ meets today. Markets are assigning a ~21% chance they hike rates. No change could see the NZD fall & AUD/NZD snap back.• AU CPI. January reading of the monthly CPI indicator due today. Annual inflation forecast to re-accelerate. This may catch the eye & give the AUD a boost. Another uneventful session overnight. US and European equities consolidated (S&P500 +0.1%), with yesterday’s lift in Asia not flowing through (China’s CSI300 index rose 1.2%, its...

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27 Feb 2024

Getting Kinky

Despite the volume of noise that has so often accompanied them, American elections have historically had very little impact on currency markets. This year could be slightly different. Donald Trump appears committed to doubling down on the protectionist impulses that defined his first term, threatening to implement a 10-percent “universal baseline tariff” on imports from all US trading partners. We don’t expect traders to take directional positions this far from election day, but we do worry that market participants are failing to anticipate a rise in uncertainty. Volatility term structures – which measure the cost of insuring against big moves...

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27 Feb 2024

Markets Flatline As Directional Trading Narratives Fade 

Trading across financial markets remains subdued as participants stockpile powder ahead of Thursday’s personal consumption expenditures report. US Treasury yields are modestly lower, movement in equity futures remains tightly restrained after most major indices closed in negative territory during yesterday’s session, and oil prices are inching higher. The Canadian dollar is practically unmoved. The yen was the lone outperformer overnight after Japanese price growth slowed less than expected in January, but its gains have mostly been reversed on closer examination of the underlying data. Core inflation, which in Japan excludes fresh food and includes energy, slowed to 2 percent year...

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