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07 Feb 2024

Steady as she goes

• Consolidation. US equities edged higher, bond yields ticked up slightly, but the USD and other major currencies remained range bound.• Fed speak. More Fed members spoke overnight. But reaction was limited. Market interest rates have adjusted with odds of a March cut whittled down.• AUD turn? AUD tracking below our fair-value estimate. A lot of bad news looks factored in. US inflation, US retail sales, & AU jobs due next week. Fairly subdued trade in most markets overnight. Given the lack of top tier data releases this is not a surprise. In contrast to European stocks which eased slightly...

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07 Feb 2024

Sleepy Markets Prepare for Uneventful Session 

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Markets aren’t providing us with much to write about this morning: equity futures are setting up for a tame open, yields are basically flat, and most major currencies are less than 0.10 percent off yesterday’s levels. Yesterday’s round of Fedspeak was relatively hawkish. Outgoing Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester – a voter until June – said policymakers might feel confident enough to begin easing policy “later this year,” but “It would be a mistake to move rates down too soon or too quickly without sufficient evidence that inflation is on a sustainable and...

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