Dollar Trades Heavy Into Non-Farm Payrolls
Treasury yields and the dollar are slipping, with this morning’s non-farm payrolls report expected to show the job market slowing in January – clearing the way for more easing talk from Federal Reserve officials. Brace for whiplash price action. Statistical and weather-related factors could trigger a dramatic miss in the headline number, with the range of analyst estimates looking unusually wide – from 150,000 to 290,000 – and Bloomberg pointing out that a negative print is within the realm of possibility. Benchmark and population revisions could meaningfully lower trend rates, even if the underlying job market remains relatively stable. Traders...