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11 Jan 2024

11 Jan 2024

US CPI surprise

• US CPI. Data slightly higher than forecast. This triggered a bout of market volatility. After an initial jump in yields & the USD, & drop in equities, markets reversed.• Glass half full. US yields fell as some underlying inflation trends still support the outlook for eventual Fed policy easing, though a move in March looks too soon.• AUD vol. Further bouts of AUD volatility likely given where we are in the cycle. Since the float the AUD has, on average, traded in a ~13cent range each year. Markets endured a burst of volatility overnight in the wake of the...

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11 Jan 2024

Inflation Tops Expectations, Bets on Fed Easing Slip

Underlying US consumer inflation failed to soften as much as expected last month, reducing odds on rate cuts at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting and beyond According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.9 percent in December from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This slightly exceeded consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which were set closer to the 3.8-percent mark. On a headline all-items basis,...

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11 Jan 2024

Market Calm Remains Intact 

Treasury yields and the broad dollar are coming under selling pressure ahead of this morning’s inflation report, but position-taking looks relatively subdued. The report, due in less than half an hour, is expected to show the core consumer price index rising by 3.8 percent in the year to December, slowing from 4 percent in November and helping set the stage for rules-driven rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months. As we had suspected, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams attempted to rebuff these easing expectations in a speech yesterday, but markets paid him little...

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