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14 Dec 2023

US Fed pivot has further to run

The US Fed’s ‘dovish’ turn at its mid-December meeting, where it effectively called time on the rate hiking phase and opened the door to easing down the track, has reverberated across markets. Global interest rate expectations have adjusted lower and bond yields tumbled, growth linked risk assets such as equities and commodities have risen, and the USD’s downturn took another leg lower. This mix has pushed the AUD (now ~$0.67) to the top of its multi-month range, a long way (nearly 7%) from its late-October lows. While the Fed’s pivot looks to have stunned many, it wasn’t a surprise to...

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USD downturn deepens

• Central banks. ECB & BoE kept rates steady but tried to push back on policy easing expectations. This helped EUR & GBP with the USD still under pressure.• Fed impacts. The US Fed’s dovish turn has continued to reverberate across markets. Bond yields fell again & risk sentiment remains positive.• AU jobs. Employment exceeded forecasts & while unemployment ticked up it remains low. China data batch due today. This can impact the AUD. Following yesterdays ‘dovish’ pivot by the US Fed and signals that rate cuts will probably be the next step, central banks remained in focus overnight. As...

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Christmas comes early to financial markets

The dollar plunged yesterday when the policy elves at the world’s most powerful central bank met markets halfway, indicating they expect to cut rates at least three times next year, and four times in 2025. Perhaps more importantly, a jolly Jerome Powell chose not to fight back against an ongoing loosening in financial conditions in the post-meeting press conference, instead pointing to a series of indicators showing the economy achieving a soft landing and suggesting inflation could come down without a rise in unemployment. Some of the fervour is cooling this morning, but not much. With markets now pricing in...

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