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08 Dec 2023

Hotter-than-expected jobs report bolsters dollar

The US job creation engine kept humming in November, suggesting that the Federal Reserve has farther to go in slowing the economy – policymakers may have to hold rates at prevailing levels for longer. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 199,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate crept lower to 3.8 percent, heading back toward historic lows. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent year-over-year, solidly topping expectations. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a 180,000-job gain (although the “whisper number” was likely lower) and the unemployment rate was seen holding...

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Currencies mark time ahead of non-farms

Traders are keeping powder dry ahead of this morning’s critical non-farm payrolls report. Equity futures are flat-lining, Treasury yields are holding near three-month lows, and all of the major currency pairs are caught within tight ranges. Consensus forecasts collected by Bloomberg and Reuters suggest the US added roughly 190,000 jobs in November – down from 150,000 in the prior month – but a growing sense of economic pessimism has likely left markets positioning for a softer print. The unemployment rate could rise to 4.0 percent, but on a three-month averaged basis is likely to remain below the level needed to...

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